The Chicago Bears Fan Forum

The song says that “Desperation shows its ugly face in many ways.  No one can escape the times we live in.”  In the end it’s always how we respond to the situations that we confront, sometimes every day, that separates men and women of character from the chaff.  The Chicago Bears are no different, as Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times points out:

“One local scribe said the Bears ‘didn’t act like men at the head of a regime in peril’ when they signed [Julius] Peppers, Chester Taylor and Brandon Manumaleuna. But of course they did. Only in absolute desperation would the Bears act as boldly and spend as freely as they did Friday. In fact, it wasn’t until they finally realized they were a regime in peril — more specifically that their status in that regime was in peril — that they moved as swiftly and as wildly as they ever have. The biggest news at Halas Hall on Friday was that the Bears finally got the memo.”

There’s little doubt Potash is largely right.  In particular, virtually everyone acknowledges that head coach Lovie Smith has to go to the playoffs next year to save his job.  But that can’t be the whole story.   From the top down, there are several interesting aspects to these recent signings.

We can start with ownership who is shelling out a great deal of money in an effort to win now, something which as a fan I definitely appreciate.  Yes, it helps that there isn’t a first or second round pick to sign but they still had to pay quarterback Jay Cutler, who essentially represents the last two first rounders.  So there’s a lot of money being invested here on top of that.  Let’s not forget that, desperate or not, GM Jerry Angelo still had to get permission from the McCaskey family to spend the money.  He obviously did.

Make no mistake.  The McCaskey family is also under pressure here.  But it may not be the kind of pressure that people think.

The most obvious reason that they’d like to win now is because winning means more gross income.  Let a franchise waste away in mediocrity too long and people lose interest.  But let’s be honest.  This is Chicago.  The Bears are three years removed from a Super Bowl.  Yeah, that seems like forever but the Bears are going to bring in fans from all over for a long time to come.  I think they’ve got time to turn this thing around before the team really starts to feel it financially.

No, I think the McCaskey’s have stepped up to the plate because of a different kind of pressure and they’ve done it with the best of intentions.  First, I think they’d like to win one more for family matriarch, Virginia.  We all hope that Mrs. McCaskey has many years left with us and I’m sure she’s in excellent health.  But no one could blame the family for trying extra hard to get another Super Bowl sooner rather than later.  Rebuilding a franchise from the front office down takes time.  Possibly too much time.  Much better to make the extra sacrifices to allow the current regime to succeed.  I also think that should they find it necessary to clean house next year, they’d genuinely like to be able to say that they gave the current front office and all of the employees in it all the support they could.  No one would argue that now.

We can safely skip over team president Ted Phillips, who probably isn’t in a great deal of danger, to Angelo.  Until last year, spending this kind of money on players that weren’t home grown was out of character for Angelo.  He’s always been a draft-driven GM.  But now Angelo’s job may be on the line and he’s definitely feeling the heat.  Last year was a problem and, no matter how much they talk about being a team, there was definitely a split between he and Smith late in the season.  Angelo told the team web site during a series of ill advised weekly interviews that he felt the team had the talent to win.  With the season going down the tubes and with the possibility that one or both men might be fired, Angelo effectively pointed the finger straight at Smith.  Smith for his part made it fairly clear in comments that he made that he felt there were missing pieces.

So the change in philosophy is probably for two reasons.  1)  Angelo is trying to provide the talent to win and save both his job and Smith’s and 2)  if they don’t win, he wants to be able to say that he provided the team with the best available talent so that he can set Smith up as the fall guy and save his own job.

Angelo did something similar, but on a much smaller scale, in 2003 when he traded down in the first round of the NFL draft so that he could take both his quarterback Rex Grossman and defensive end Michael Haynes.  Had he just taken a QB of the future, then head coach Dick Jauron could have claimed that Angelo didn’t give him the help he needed to win immediately.  But with Haynes on the roster, Angelo was able to shrug when the season was over and say, “Hey, I tried to help him the best I could.  They just aren’t well-coached.” and he was allowed to fire Jauron.

This kind of finger pointing is really ugly.  It’s all the worse because it might not work.  This season is a bigger gamble with a lot more money involved and Smith was still Angelo’s hire.  It’s much more likely that Angelo will go down with Smith if the 2010 season goes haywire.

Pressure can bring out both the best and the worst in people.  Because of that it’s going to be especially interesting to see how people face the music next year.

Bears

• Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune makes a really good point:

“The Bears are all in for 2010, and if they don’t win within a year or two they will be in for a massive and potentially ugly rebuilding project.

“On Friday, they signed three 30-year olds.

“Other members of the Bears’ nucleus include Brian Urlacher, soon to be 32, Lance Briggs, 29, and Olin Kreutz, soon to be 33.

“What’s more, the Bears won’t have first-round draft picks to develop from last year or this year, thanks to the Jay Cutler trade.

“If Cutler does not step up his game and the Bears go in the tank, whoever inherits this team is going to have a lot of work to do.”

The Bears are going to pay dearly for all those third round draft choices that didn’t produce starters.

• Pompei also thinks that the Bears should be pursuing safety Oshiomogho Atogwe.  Atogwe is a restricted free agent and the Rams are executing a plan that Bears GM Jerry Angelo learned a long time ago that you do at your own peril.  They are letting the market decide Atogwe’s value so that they can choose to match the best offer, essentially letting the league do their negotiating for them.  This can back fire if someone purposely structures a contract offer for Atogwe that can’t be matched even though the amount of the money could be paid by the Rams.

I know that Pompei is probably right but something inside me rebels at the thought of stooping to the Vikings’ level to offer a poison pill contract.  I never liked it and I never will.

• Brad Biggs at The National Football Post says that six teams are interested in safety Ryan Clark.  The Bears are an obvious possibility.
• Former NFL safety Matt Bowen at The National Football Post does a nice job of breaking down what Julius Peppers and Chester Taylor bring to the Bears in separate articles.

Elsewhere

• Aaron Kampman has reportedly signed with the Jaguars.  I guess its not surprising that the three best defensive ends on the market signed quickly.  With the exception of quarterback and the possible exception of left tackle, its still the most valuable position on the field.  Nose guard is catching up quickly, though.
• Speaking of nose guards, Terry Pluto at the Cleveland Plain Dealer says that Shaun Rogers might be on the move.  This sounds like it could be a good thing for the Browns.  He’s going to be 31 years old but he’s still darned valuable.  He could bring a nice price in a trade.
• The Raiders say that Justin Fargas was released because he failed a physical.  Fargas says he’s fine.  I never trust anything the Raiders say but I’m having a hard time understanding why they would lie on this one.  In any case it will be interesting to see where Fargas lands.

One Final Thought

This from Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times:

“Many of you are now blowing up my email, wondering when and how the Bears are going to address the safety position.

“To you I say this: chill out.”

“In addition, the market for guards and safeties isn’t anything like that of quarterbacks, receivers, cornerbacks and pass rushers, with the exception of a guy like Antrel Rolle, who was released on Friday.

“There are some quality safeties available now. But I suspect teams, including the Bears, are waiting for the market to fall. Players — and agents — often over inflate the market.”

Yeah, yeah.  We get this.  And I can only speak for myself but I’m not panicking or anything.

Yes, the Bears probably will sign one – probably.  But the Bears needed a free safety last year and they let the position ride to their detriment.  The fact that they are waiting indicates to me that, as Jensen suggested, they think that its a toss up among the available candidates and they are willing to wait and see who shakes down to get the most reasonable deal.  Like Jensen, I used to think that this was smart.  But after years of watching the guys in the Bears front office, I’m starting to think differently.

The truth is that they A)  don’t think the position is important enough and/or B)  don’t have the skill to evaluate the crowd of available talent and pick out the one or two gems.  If both of these things were true, they’d have gone after their guy and signed him by now.  You don’t have to camp out on his door step at midnight but the fact that they apparently haven’t moved yet may indicate that they really might not know what they’re doing.  It’s very possible that they don’t have the skill to find a difference maker who is less than obvious and do what it takes to get him here.

I agree with Jensen that it’s definitely too early to make a really big deal about it but, given their history, I think the fans have every right to be at least a little concerned that the Bears are going to be hurting at the position (again).

Bears

• There isn’t a lot I can say about the free agent signings yesterday except “nice job”.  One thing is very clear:  the Bears needed Julius Peppers or someone like him in the worst way.  They absolutely, positively had to have more pass rush and without a first or second round pick, free agency was the way to go.  That deal had to get done and, like the trade for Jay Cutler, I won’t be critical of it no matter how Peppers works out.
• Having said that, I question the signings of Brandon Manumaleuna and Chester Taylor a little more.

Yes, a blocking tight end is nice but the Bears do have Kellen Davis on the roster and they probably paid underrated all-around tight end Desmond Clark his roster bonus to keep him on the team.

Another running back to compliment Matt Forte?  Great.  Kevin Jones hasn’t been able to stay healthy and depending on him would have entailed some risk.  I recognize that.

But the Bears had alternatives at these positions and, in contrast, with all due respect to Craig Steltz who is better suited to the strong side, they have no decent free safeties.  None.  And they didn’t quickly sign one of choice.

Despite the comments from Bear head coach Lovie Smith that the Bears need to “invest” more at the position, the Bears seem to continue to underrate it.  Last year it was an obvious need going into the draft and they didn’t pick one up, choosing to go with the players they have.  It was a mistake which they would pay for over and over again during the season.  They can’t afford to do it again.

As Dan Pompei rightly points out for the Chicago Tribune, having a better pass rush is going to make the safeties better.  But in my opinion the Bears still need one.   It didn’t have to be a costly Antrel Rolle but I would have rather they had committed that money to someone at the safety position than where they did.

Assuming that they learned the lesson from last year and genuinely recognize the need to upgrade the position (a big assumption), the Bears are – at the moment – in a spot where they’re going to need to draft a free safety (again).  And other teams know that and they’re going to take advantage of it during the process. Even if the Bears manage to draft a good prospect in my opinion they’re going to have to depend upon him to start.  Free agency isn’t over but the situation as it stands should make everyone uncomfortable.

• Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com describes ways that the Bears could still end up with Brandon Marshall despite the fact that he’s been given a first round tender and the Bears don’t have a first round pick.

I know that one scout actually bet a steak dinner that Marshall would be on the Bears by the beginning of training camp but I just can’t see it.  Sure, they could use a very good wide receiver (who couldn’t?) but their needs on defense are much more of a priority and its going to continue to be costly enough to fill them.  They aren’t going to pay Marshall and given that they need to commit their resources elsewhere, they can’t afford to pay the price to obtain his rights.  They’re going to have to live or die with the receivers they have.

Elsewhere

• Greg Bedard at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Daryn Colledge is privately “furious” that the Packers only tendered him at a second round level.  Colledge is mad and blames someone else for his short comings?  I find that hard to believe [unplant tongue from cheek here].  Gregg Rosenthall at profootballtalk.com expresses my own thoughts better than I could:

“Colledge’s attitude won’t sit well with a fan base that was publicly furious with Colledge’s turnstile-like play last season.  (Jared Allen and Antwan Odom loved it.)  Colledge is tired of changing positions, but we suspect the team is tired of his excuses.

“We’ve got news for Colledge: It’s very unlikely any team will give up a second-round pick for him.”

Colledge has denied the report.  Knowing Colledge through previous media reports, I believe Bedard.

• Lovie Smith wasn’t the only one who did some traveling to get his man.  Lion’s head coach Jim Schwartz showed up at the house of and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch just after midnight on the 5th.  Evidently it worked because he’s now a Lion.
• Ben Roethlisberger is being accused of sexual assault (again).  This time the victim was treated at a hospital and if there was a minimal period of time between the “encounter” and the report to the police and the medical treatment, this one has a chance of sticking.  Indications are that is the case as its being reported that Roethlisberger was interviewed by police at the club where the assault allegedly took place shortly after the incident.

If the accusation is true I hope the guy rots in jail.  If its not true then I would advise Big Ben to use a lot better judgment when it comes to who he associates with.  I’m surprised he didn’t learned that lesson after the last time he was accused of this.

One Final Thought

Number of the day?  212.  That’s the number of blog posts on profootballtalk.com starting at roughly noon on Thursday through roughly 10:00AM Saturday morning as the tender process and free agency progressed.

Message to the NFL and the NFLPA:  Pro football is king.  Don’t blow it.

Bears

• Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times reports that restricted free agent linebacker Jamar Williams will only get an original tender from the club.  The Bears will get a 4th round pick in compensation if he signs elsewhere.

This sounds to me like a mistake.  I’m guessing that someone will sign him for that because he’s good enough to start for a lot of other clubs.  The Bears are never going to get what he’s worth out of a fourth round pick and they going to lose valuable depth at linebacker.  Though not as bad, this reminds me of the decision to trade free safety Chris Harris for a 5th round pick, one that still haunts the Bears to this day.

• I think its worth asking if the Bears offered Orlando Pace the chance to take a salary cut and before releasing him.  No matter how old he is, left tackles don’t grow on trees and not many teams can claim to have more than one.  Pace isn’t a Pro Bowler any more but he certainly is a serviceable veteran back up who can do a credible job if the injury bug hits.
• Brad Biggs, writing for the National Football Post, reports that the Bears will be moving Danieal Manning once again, this time to the starting strong safety spot.

Really?  Again?

I understand that Manning has tantalizing athletic ability but come on.  This team is full of strong safeties who are bigger hitters and have better instincts than Manning.  Isn’t it time to accept that he’s a decent nickel back and a good kick returner and just leave it at that?

Biggs also elaborates upon the larger issue of concern:

“That has been one of the issues that has plagued the team. The coaching staff has been forced to deal with injuries at safety over the last six seasons, but it’s also created problems for itself with misevaluations and the problems have been compounded by indecision. Since Smith took over in 2004, the Bears have changed starting free safeties 21 times and starting strong safeties 20 times.”

• Biggs, writing for the Chicago Tribune this time, looks at the playing time at defensive tackle last season.  Tommie Harris led the group with 607.

The most intriguing player on this list for me is Matt Toeania.  He’s done some good things occasionally on the field and for a while there he looked like a real find when the Bears picked him up from the Bengals in 2007.  He had 3 tackles, 2 for losses, in his first game against the Vikings.  But he only played 3 snaps last year.  All I can figure is that the guy must be a terrible practice player.

• David Kaplan, also at the Tribune, reports that the Bears were seen meeting with Julius Pepper’s agent at the Combine.  Can you say “tampering”?

In fairness, everyone knows that a certain amount of this happens at this time of year and it would probably be tough to prove exactly what the Bears talked to him about and what words they used.  But still, a team that got the 49ers in some trouble with the league for tampering had better be extra clean.

• Neil Hayes at the Chicago Sun-Times makes the case that the Bears need help at virtually every offensive position.  That’s too bad because I’m pretty sure that GM Jerry Angelo wasn’t kidding when he indicated that they were going to more or less stand pat on that side of the ball.  It wasn’t a smoke screen.  The defense is aging and it needs more help than the offense.  Its only going to get help if the best player on the board when they draft happens to be offensive.

Elsewhere

• Bob McGinn reports that the Packers are going to send guard Daryn Colledge a restricted free agent tender.  I’m a little surprised.  Colledge had a bad year even when compared to the rest of an offensive line that wasn’t all that good overall.  But even more than that, he seems to have an attitude.  He seemed to often be the first to stand up and point fingers elsewhere when the line came under criticism, particularly at the way that Aaron Rogers held the ball too long.  No matter how justified, that kind of action tends to rub me the wrong way as a fan.  I can’t imagine that its any better with teammates.
• Marvin Lewis called the process of getting a player ready for the NFL Combine “asinine”:

“[T]hey spend three or four years with a strength coach on a college campus and as soon as the season’s over they go somewhere else to some guy who doesn’t know them from a hole in the wall and pay this guy a bunch of money… These guys have the best facilities and the best people working with them year round and now all the sudden they got to go somewhere else.  You don’t need to go away.  A football player is a football player.”

Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com comments:

“Though we think the entire process is asinine, the reality is that as long as teams believe that tangible measurements are important, agents charged with getting these guys drafted as high as possible realize that success depends in part upon a great showing in the Underwear Olympics.  So while Lewis is right — a football player is a football player — the Scouting Combine and the Pro Day workouts don’t entail playing football.  They require football players to engage in specific track-and-field activities, and the paid experts to whom the players go after leaving school are far better suited to get the players ready than the guys who were responsible for getting them ready to play football.”

Every year we we all say what a waste this is.  But its not going away because there just isn’t a better alternative.

• Florio also made a rational comment regarding an public exchange between the NFL and the NFLPA on their websites regarding the negotiations over a new collective bargaining agreement:

“The Tuesday afternoon exchange highlights a point we previously have made and will repeat.  Since the clock does not and will not strike 12 until next year at this time, the best approach by both sides would be to do that which Archie Bunker routinely wanted Edith to do — and then get together after Super Bowl XLV for two weeks at a five-star resort and work this thing out.  Anything they say between now and then will serve only to drive the two sides farther apart before the time comes to work it out.”

I, personally, would rather that they not wait.  But I’ll also say that doing what Archie Bunker wanted Edith to do would almost certainly be fine with the league.  The problem is that DeMaurice Smith won’t shut up and he continues to treat his comments to the public and the players more like a trial lawyer trying to win a case through argument than a negotiator trying to find a reasonable compromise.  He’s never going to get a deal done as long as this is the case.

• I didn’t have a lot of time to watch the NFL Combine but I did watch the quarterbacks go through their paces.  My evaluation largely agreed with Michael Lombardi’s at the National Football Post.  The quality is low, low, low, indicating that the drop off is pretty big after Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen.  Tony Pike was disappointing and Colt McCoy would have been had I expected anything.  None of those who worked out have a great arm except possibly John Skelton from Fordham (you could literally hear the ball whistle through the mike at one point) and no one had what you’d call a particularly quick release.

One Final Thought

Peggy Kusinski at NBC Chicago reports that “friends” of tight end Greg Olsen say that he is quietly requesting a trade.  He’s not happy with the hiring of Mike Martz who apparently has this odd notion that tight ends should be able to block.

The correct response for Olsen would have been, “If that’s what he wants, I’ll put my head down and darned well learn to do it.”  Indeed, Olsen should have been doing it better by now anyway.  Now he could take advantage of the presence of Mike Tice which could really help.

I can only say that if this turns out to be the truth, I’m very disappointed.

Bears

• Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune writes that despite the fact that the Bears said they won’t go “hog wild” in free agency, you can expect them to be very active.

“‘Some years we really had a need and you’re hostage to the position and we did whatever it took,’ [GM Jerry] Angelo said.

“Someone call a negotiator, the Bears are in such a situation again.”

I would agree.  Biggs mentions free safety first (as well he should) but everyone knows that they need another pass rusher, as well.  He also mentions a couple other positions but those are the two that the Bears must address somewhere.  Angelo has made it clear in his years in Chicago that he never goes into the draft with a serious need unfilled.  He always wants to leave his hands free to take the best available player.  That means that Antrel Rolle and either Julius Peppers or Aaron Kampman are going to get serious offers quickly.

• Biggs also says that head coach Lovie Smith is unsatisfied with the running backs.  I, personally, still like Kevin Jones but have to admit that he’s been hurt too often for comfort.  The Bears might be looking to sign one of the many veteran running backs that are hitting the market now as a change of pace back.  But I tend to agree with Dan Pompei, also at the Tribune:

“With roster sizes being what they are, it’s important that backups contribute on special teams. And running backs generally are expected to be core special-teams players. Unless an older back has a defined, valuable role on offense, he’s just taking up space if he isn’t playing on special teams–and playing well. Very few older backs, especially former stars–contribute much on special teams.”

This is going to be an interesting position to watch.

• Biggs also reports that wide receiver Earl Bennett had knee surgery and will miss some offseason workouts.  Good luck to him in learning new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s offense.  He also had this nugget:

“It sounds like  Jarron Gilbert and Henry Melton, rookies last season, will be worked at defensive tackle.”

Translation?  Two possibilities:  1)  They had them playing out of position or 2)  They stink as ends and the move to tackle is a desperate attempt to get something out of them.

[head shake]

In fairness we always knew that Gilbert was a possibility at tackle.  Still, I can’t help but think how typical this is.

• Pompei also answers this interesting question:

“Should the Bears be worried about their tough-looking 2010 opponents?  Eric, Orinda, Calif.

“Remember this: teams that look tough now might not look so tough when the Bears play them. And teams that don’t look so tough now might look very tough when the Bears play them. Looking at the strength of schedule in February is a waste of time in my opinion.”

Pompei has a point but I wouldn’t call it a waste of time.  Though the performance of individual teams does vary year to year the Bears are playing the NFC and AFC East next year.  As a group those are very competitive, higher quality teams than those found, for instance, in the NFC West.  The Bears are going to have a rougher schedule.   Fortunately for them, that goes for the whole division.

• Here’s a statement from Smith’s press conference yesterday that stuck out a bit:

“We haven’t done as well probably with some of the earlier picks.  But it seems like the third round on, we have done well. So looking at it just from that point of view, we know we’ve gotten a lot of players that have played well for us from the later rounds on and that’s what we’re dealing with.”

Not long after, Biggs re-tweeted this message from Football Outsiders:

“Has he actually seen who they’ve drafted in the third round and on over the past few years?”

I don’t know about Smith but I certainly have.  You could argue that the Bears’ failures in the third round are one of the biggest reasons, if not the biggest reason, they are in the condition that they are in.  Smith’s statement is ridiculous.

Elsewhere

• Bob McGinn at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out that the Packers might be losers in free agency this year.  Kampman, Chad Clifton, and Mark Tauscher look like they will all be unrestricted free agents and the Packers are likely to have to pay more than they would like to keep them.  Clifton and Tauscher are both older veterans who I’m sure the Packers would like to replace with younger players like T.J. Lang.  But as last year showed, the Packers are better with these veterans ready to step in.  Tom Pelissero at the Green Bay Press-Gazette says that head coach Mike McCarthy evidently wants all three back.

Tauscher, in particular, might have a year or two of good tread left on the tires and will probably be the best right tackle available.  The Bears might be interested in him at the right price, especially if they want to keep Frank Omiyale at left guard.

• Pelissero also has this quote from Packers GM Ted Thompson regarding QB Tim Tebow:

“‘I will say this about young Tebow — there’s been a lot of discussion and commenting on him and his release and his ability to play in the National Football League,’ Thompson said. ‘Based on his history, I think that would be a little bit premature to start criticizing him and doubting his ability to play. He’s been playing at a pretty high level for quite some time, has to go down as one of the great college football players of all time. So, let’s not sell him short just yet.’

“That’s more than Thompson says about any prospect. Ever.

“And so the only conclusion I really could draw from Thompson’s stance is the Packers would never draft Tebow. Ever.”

That’s too bad for Tebow.  The Packers are one of the few organizations that could ever hope to develop him into a good pro QB.  He’s going to be totally deconstructed and put back together again, a lot of tough work that may never pay off:

“‘You have to be prepared to take a player at quarterback as he is,’ longtime NFL personnel executive Charley Casserly said. ‘History shows you can tweak a release — you can’t change a release. (Chargers quarterback) Philip Rivers is a guy where’s it’s been tweaked over a period of time. I don’t think you radically change anything that somebody has a habit and has been drilled and you deal with under pressure.’”

• Via Gregg Rosenthal at profootballtalk.com:

“Asked by ESPN’s Chris Mortensen if [QB Brett] Favre could join his teammates on a similar timeline to last year, [Vikings head coach Brad] Childress said, ‘I’m pretty good with that. . . . It would it be nice to know sooner than later.  But you have to be able to deal with uncertainty and ambiguity in this business.’”

Translation: “I hope he doesn’t make me drive him all the way from Mississippi instead of just the airport this time.”

It’s hard to imagine any coach in the NFL who deserves less respect than Childress.

One Final Thought

Arkansas offensive lineman Mike Petrus tied the NFL Scouting Combine bench press record.  He did 45 reps at 225 pounds.  The other record holders?  Ohio State DE Mike Kudla (2006) and UTEP DT Leif Larson (2000).

We’re not impressed.

Rick Gosselin at the Dallas Morning News came out with his annual special teams rankings.  The team at the top was something of a surprise:  the Cleveland Browns.  Since they ranked 32nd in offense and 31st in defense, Gosselin makes the case that Cleveland basically won 5 games in 2009 almost entirely because of their special teams.  The Bears were 6th.

But how important are special teams to winning football?  Traditionally we say that its 1/3 of the game and therefore the significance of having good special teams should be high.

The following is a statistical analysis which examines the importance of offense, defense and special teams to overall team performance during the regular season.  Other than the Gosselin rankings, the statistics come from nfl.com.  The analysis doesn’t come up to the standards of a real statistician but its good enough to tell us what we need to know in a relatively simple way.  However, if you don’t feel like wading through the logic (I don’t blame you), skip to the bottom line.

Special Teams Analysis

In order to determine the importance of special teams, I performed a very simple statistical analysis to look at how success in this area correlates with overall success.  The results are what you see below:

The graph above is of the relationship between Gosselin’s special teams rankings and overall placement in the NFL league standings.  Each point represents a team.  The solid line is the best one that can be drawn through the points (i.e. there is a minimum distance between the points and the line shown).  The dashed line through the points is an ideal relationship between these two parameters.  This is what the solid line would look like if there was a perfect correlation between special teams ranking and the team’s placement in the league standings.  How much special teams determined how well the team did overall can be determined by seeing how much the solid line looks like the dashed line in the graph.

Note the statistics below the graph.  An ideal relationship (the dashed line) has a y-intercept of 0 (i.e. the y value at x=0) and a slope of 1 (that is, ideally, the team with the 1st ranked special teams would be 1st in the standings, the the team with the 2nd ranked special teams would be 2nd, etc…)  The R² is a measure of how close the relationship between the data points is to a line, which, again, is the ideal.  The closer the R² is to 1, the better the relationship and the closer to 0, the worse relationship.

The relationship between performance on special teams (by the Gosselin rankings) and overall performance of the team is almost nonexistent.  The R² is 0.02, almost 0 and far from the ideal of 1, as is the slope of the best line through the points.  The y-intercept is 18.7, far from the ideal of 0 and practically halfway between the lowest and highest ranking.

Offensive and Defensive Analysis

How does this compare with the other 2/3 of the game?  The defensive and offensive graphs are below.  Since teams are ranked both by yardage and points and each has its advocates, I looked at both parameters as well as the relationship between the league standings and the mean between the two rankings:

As can be seen, there is a relationship between defensive statistics and NFL league standings.  But the relationship to the offensive rankings is far, far stronger.  In both cases, measurement of performance by points seems to correlate better with overall performance than yards and in the case of offensive points, the relationship is almost perfect with an R² value of 0.76, a slope of 0.9 (both close to 1) and a y-intercept of only 1.3 which is very close to the ideal of 0.

Pass Vs. Run

Having determined which aspect of the game is the most important, we can now further break down the rankings by the type of yardage produced.  Below is an analysis of passing yardage and rushing yardage:

The relationship between rushing yardage and overall success as measured by league standings is nonexistent.  The y-intercept is extremely high, far from 0, the slope of the line is almost 0 (the ideal is 1) and the R² value as a measure of the linearity of the data is 0.  There is no relationship between the ability to run the ball and success in the regular season by this measure.

What about passing yardage?  While not as good as the relationship to overall offense, the league standings do correlate relatively strongly to passing yardage.  Clearly if you are going to have success in the NFL, you must be able to pass the ball effectively.

Bottom Line

The old adage is that “Defense wins championships”.  The Chicago Bears have traditionally built their teams through defense and special teams.  When the Bears have had offense, they based it upon their ability to run the ball with such great runningbacks as Gale Sayers and Walter Payton.  Even today, current head coach Lovie Smith loves to talk about how the Bears “get off the bus running”.

The Bears take pride in their linebackers, like Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary, and Brian Urlacher.  They hire defensive head coaches and generally tout the tradition of defense.  They have had excellent special teams under Smith, special teams coordinator Dave Toub and GM Jerry Angelo, who takes great care to draft prospects with special teams ability in mind.

And its all wrong.  While the Bears have emphasized their chosen 2/3 of the game, its the other 1/3 that turns out to be the dominant factor is determining who wins and who loses.  Looking at the data above, there just can’t be any doubt about it anymore.  Statistically speaking, the modern NFL is a passing league.  As great as the Bears have been defensively, they absolutely must develop offensively into one of the best teams in the league if they want to win consistently.

The Bears may have had statistics like this in mind when they hired new offensive coordinator Mike Martz, a passing guru.  But what’s really needed is a complete change in the the way the game is viewed from the top down.  The new attitude must start with ownership, who hire the appropriate front office personnel and staff, which filters down through the scouts and the coaching staff to the types of players that they develop.  Such change takes a long time to take root and bear fruit under the best of conditions.  We can only hope the Bears are not so anchored in their traditions that they cannot manage to effect it soon.

Bears

• Alex Brown thinks Aaron Kampman would be a good fit for the Bears at defensive end.  I would agree though I worry about him coming off of a knee injury.

The Bears do need an elite defensive lineman.  But I’m wondering if they couldn’t use help at defensive tackle more than end.  Probably the best player available for the money at either position is the way to go.

• Larry Mayer answers your questions.  Unlike many of the rest of us who see the absence of a first and second round pick as an opportunity to spend the money elsewhere, he thinks the Bears are unlikely to be very active when free agency begins March 5.

“Just because they don’t overpay for players during the first few days of free agency doesn’t mean they can’t address their needs. They’ve acquired key contributors via trades (Jay Cutler and Adewale Ogunleye), as street free agents during the season (Robbie Gould and Tim Shaw), off other teams’ practice squads (Devin Aromashodu and Nick Roach) and several weeks or months into free agency (Anthony Adams, Roberto Garza and Kevin Jones).”

And that strategy has gotten them to all of 7-9 last year.  By all means lets continue to do it that way.

• Dan Pompei also thinks that opportunities in free agency are going to be limited but then goes on to mention Julius Peppers, Kampman, and Darren Sharper as profitability.  The Bears need safety help but Sharper’s probably not coming.  But pass rush is a huge need that Peppers and Kampman could fill.
• Like many people, Pompei thinks the Bears may move Frank Omiyale to right tackle.  If they do, left guard will be interesting to watch.  Josh Beekman is experienced but undersized and is more of a center type.  He’s never been an ideal fit.  Lance Louis might be interesting to watch.
• From Pro Football Weekly’s Audibles column:

“The Bears could have named the water boy defensive coordinator. It didn’t matter. They said (Lovie) Smith was relinquishing the job, but he’s still going to be heavily involved. The defense is not changing, and the Bears are going to have the same problems. The great irony is — for as much as everyone blamed Ron Turner and the quarterback last year, the biggest problem was on defense.”

Elsewhere

• According to Nicholas Contsonika at the Detroit Free Press, Gunther Cunningham is trying to make the Lions defense better at the expense of the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs have gone to the 3-4 and are letting players who don’t fit go.  Cunningham is a former defensive coordinator for the Chiefs and knows the personnel.  Similar situations should be playing out all over the league as more teams go to the 3-4.  The Bears and other 4-3 teams should be able to take advantage.
• Tim Twentyman at the Detroit News thinks the Lions have a need at runningback.  They probably could do better but the Lions have a lot of needs and I don’t agree that runningback is a priority.  If their running game is coming up short, it got more to do with the offensive line.
• Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com says that multiple agents are complaining about the lack of available information from the NFLPA about the progress of negotiations with the NFL.  That’s probably because they have a bad habit of leaking it when they get it.  For the most part the union has done a good job so far of keeping the players in line as most of the comments on the issues have come through the player reps.
• Champaign, IL businessman Shahid Khan is trying to buy the St. Louis Rams.  His bid has been accepted but still must be approved by the NFL.  According to a report from Len Pasquarelli at ESPN.com this is no sure thing.  Personally I’m wondering why anyone would sink $750 million into a business that may very well have a labor stoppage right after taking ownership.  That alone would make me question the deal.
• Also via Pasquarelli, we have the comments of one AFC general manager on the Cincinnati Bengals working out Pacman Jones and signing Matt Jones:

“They’re like the Statue of Liberty of franchises. You know, give me your tired, your poor, your hungry … . They never seem to learn.”

One Final Thought

Pompei also answers your questions:

“Do you have anything to say in defense of your fellow Hall of Fame voters after bypassing Richard Dent yet again? Not only that, but recently selecting Andre Tippett and Rickey Jackson over him, neither of whom were anywhere near as dominant and neither of whom won anything in the NFL, while Dent has two rings, was MVP of Super Bowl XX and has more career sacks than both of them. I’m really starting to think there’s a conspiracy among some voters against Dent. How else can you explain the biggest playmaker on the greatest defense in NFL history not being enshrined after nine years on the ballot? — Edward Atkins, Knoxville, TN

“I won’t defend it and I can’t explain it. It is as baffling to me as it is to you. Trust me, no one is more frustrated over Dent not getting in than I am (with the possible exception of Dent).”

I cut all of the good points that Pompei made in his answer and I would refer the reader to the article.

It’s always nice to have your achievements recognized in ways like this and maybe Dent’s will be some day.  But I’m having a hard time getting too worked up over it and I hope Dent isn’t that bothered, either.  I know greatness when I see it.  Most fans who had the opportunity to watch Dent regularly do, too.  If the Hall of Fame voters can’t recognize it then their good opinion isn’t worth all that much anyway.

Dent knows who he was and, more importantly, he knows who he is.  That should be enough for anybody.

Bears

• Sean Jensen interviews Devin Hester:

“Hester sees himself in the Torry Holt role, snatching quick passes and beating defenders in space.”

Setting aside the fact that this wold be predicated on Hester being able to learn the offense, he has never shown that he has the ability to handle that role.  He frequently looks like the game is moving too fast for him when he gets the ball in space and he rarely has time to make a move.  He’s best when using straight line speed on offense.

• Jay Cutler was generally positive as he addressed the Mike Martz hiring on the Bears website but didn’t mention Martz’s comments regarding his attitude.
• From Pro Football Weekly’s Whispers column:

“As a rule, new Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz has used tight ends primarily as blockers, which is why he and Niners TE Vernon Davis were like oil and water, according to our Niners sources. But the early vibe emanating out of Halas Hall is that Martz has a different role in mind for the Bears’ Greg Olsen, who he realizes is most effective as a receiving tight end with legitimate stretch-the-field ability. Said one team insider: ‘I think Martz seems genuinely impressed with Olsen. He knows he’s a different type of player than (former Rams TE) Ernie Conwell.’”

• Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune breaks down the Bears linebackers:

“It will be interesting to see if new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has some twists when it comes to Urlacher and Briggs. The Bears have to find a way to rush the passer more effectively and more consistently. Briggs has never been a guy to produce big sack totals and Urlacher hasn’t in some time. Could Marinelli have a tweak to the scheme? The Bears better hope so.”

I’m not holding my breath.

One of the reasons that most of us hoped that head coach Lovie Smith would go outside the organization to hire a coordinator was that whoever it was might bring in new ideas for getting pressure on the quarterback without a great defensive line.  If Marinelli had anything significant to contribute in this respect, I have to believe he would have done it last year.

• Larry Mayer at chicagobears.com answers your questions:

“Who do you think will start at wide receiver for the Bears this season?

“Roger T.
“Chicago

“It’s way too early to say. New offensive coordinator Mike Martz is just beginning to study the wide receivers on tape and won’t make any definitive decisions concerning most of them until after he gets them on the field to compete. However, I do feel that Devin Aromashodu has an excellent chance to start. He performed very well late in the season and is someone who quarterback Jay Cutler has been publicly endorsing since last summer in training camp. In the Bears’ last four games of the year, Aromashodu caught 22 passes for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I like Aromashodu as much as anyone and I think he’s got a good chance to start as well if for no other reason than Martz will be more likely to use four WRs.  But Jay Cutler has nothing to do with it.  Cutler liked Aromashodu because he’s a big receiver who can go up and fight for the ball or come to the back shoulder to make a catch.  He can hide a multitude of sins.  Before Aromashodu, Cutler go intercepted forcing throws to Greg Olsen deep a lot because he was the only receiver who fit that profile.

But I’m going to be surprised if there’s  big need for that kind of receiver in Martz’s offense.  Quickness and the ability to get to the proper spot on time are going to be the most important factors for the WRs from here on out and Aromashodu’s ability to do that remains to be evaluated.

If Cutler tries to force the balls to the receivers that he thinks should be playing rather than the ones Martz favors like I strongly suspect that he did with Ron Turner last year, there’s going to be trouble.

Lions

• Also from Whispers at PFW:

“Lions head coach Jim Schwartz acknowledged to PFW at the Senior Bowl that running back is a team need this offseason. Despite offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s optimism that RB Kevin Smith will be rehabbed from a knee injury and ready to go by Week One, Schwartz said the team will look for help in the backfield. It was clear that the Lions needed a partner for Smith who has a little more speed and game-breaking ability.”

• Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com has a source who claims that Donte’ Stallworth is working out for the Lions.

Elsewhere

• The Bears have other needs but…  well, Brandon Marshall will be a restricted free agent.  Just sayin’…
• Demaurice Smith continues to yada instead of finding a way to end the labor impasse.  We’re a year away from a lockout and I’m already tired of hearing from this guy.  As pointed out by Mike Florio, writing for The Sporting News, Smith is making misleading statements to the point where it borders on lying on a number of issues, leading me to the conclusion that nothing he says can be trusted.
• In contrast to Smith, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said that fans should “expect solutions…  and we should deliver.” I’ll still be upset with both parties if there’s a work stoppage but at least Goodell’s not speaking with a forked tongue and wearing me out from listening to a bunch of crap oozing out of his mouth every week over a year before it happens.
• Andrew Brandt at the National Football Post explains how the labor negotiations got to the point where the absence of a cap doesn’t scare the owners.
• I’m as big of a supporter of freedom of the press as anyone but I see no reason why a reporter needs to be on the floor where NFL labor negotiations take place, asking participants questions as they enter and exit the meeting.
• Michael Irvin has been accused of sexual assault.  In fairness to Irvin, we all know the allegations are untrue because any realistic story would include an accusation of cocaine possession, as well.
• Minnesota fans are giving Brett Favre the rear end kissing that he craves so much.  The guess here is that they’re wasting their money.  Favre probably won’t decide to come back until he’s sure he won’t have to go to training camp.

One Final Thought

Jensen also went to New Jersey to talk to NFL Matchup’s Ron Jaworski and Greg Cosell.  There are two articles, one of which focused entirely on QB Jay Cutler and went through all 26 of his 2009 interceptions (pretty cool).  I couldn’t argue with any of the points made but I can say that in going through the interceptions and Jaworski’s comments on each, the one thing that stood out was that there wasn’t any one thing wrong with Cutler.  None of them was due to bad protection but other than that, it appears to me like if there was a reason for an interception to be thrown, he had at least one that covered it, from bad receiver play to bad reads, bad decisions and bad mechanics.

One thing is certain.  This guy needs a QB coach really badly.  As long as Cutler accepts tough love and doesn’t rebel, there is every indication that new coordinator Mike Martz fill that need.

Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune wrote what I consider to be an impressive column describing new Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz.  As a fan, I think its safe to say that I’ve never been regularly  exposed anything like him:

“Whereas Ron Turner usually plays the notes that are on the sheet music, Martz is more likely to play what he feels. Unlike about 99 percent of the play-callers in the NFL, he does not script the first 15 to 20 plays. You won’t complain about the lack of halftime adjustments this season. And when his team is in a two-minute drill, he never looks at a call sheet, he once told me.

“‘You just go by feel,’ he said.”

I read this column and one word pretty much describes my feeling about Martz.  The term is overused.  But the guy really does sound like a ‘genius’.  That’s usually considered to be a really good thing.  But what people often forget about geniuses is the baggage that they carry with them.  Martz could be the greatest thing to hit Chicago since Walter Payton.  Or he could be the worst disaster since the Chicago Fire.

The reaction to the hiring of Martz has generally been positive.  But even in the midst of those good vibes, it isn’t hard to see a hint of what the Bears might be in for.  Tom Kowalski , a Lions beat writer for mlive.com, knows Martz from his days in Detroit.  Even as he praised the Bears and predicted trouble for the Lions after the hiring of Martz, he couldn’t resist adding this nugget:

“Going into Chicago, Martz can make things easier on himself if he changes in two distinct areas: One, he has to quit giving too much busy work to his assistant coaches and give them more trust and, two, he has to understand that all players don’t see the football world in the same Matrix-type patterns he does. Martz sees things most others don’t and he gets irritated and cranky when they can’t see it, too.”

The Bears did the right thing by hiring Martz. There was no one better out there to hire and there can be little doubt that he is brilliant.  But they are going to have to deal with the problems that come with that.  Some of those problems are already evident to me.

For instance, when Martz was hired there were many people who pointed out correctly that his offense doesn’t fit the personnel that the Bears have.  It was my hope that a really smart coordinator like Martz would adapt his offensive philosophy to fit the strengths of that personnel as most really great coaches do.  Is that going to happen?

Martz did an interview yesterday on the Mully and Hanley Show on WSCR radio in Chicago.  I listened raptly to what he had to say for the entire interview.  Martz was smart, articulate, enthusiastic, and positive.  In short he was everything you would expect him to be.  But after the interview, as giddy callers expressed their good feelings about the affair, alarm bells were going off in my head.

The following is a list of some of the things that Martz said and my translation after cutting to the bottom line:

On feeding the wide receivers his offensive system:

“If they’re willing to learn they’ll learn it. If we can teach it they’ll learn it. If they’re open to it and don’t fight it they’ll learn it and learn it in short order. But what we will do is intellectually, we’ll put more on them then they have ever had before, but that’s part of what we believe in, too, to challenge players mentally as much as physically. It’s the only way to get them to play at the highest level.”

Translation:  I don’t care how smart they are or how easily they learn.  I’m not going to feed them gradually.  I’ll give it to them.  They’ll learn it.

On the running game:

“Running the football isn’t about how many times you run the ball but how effectively you run the football, how physical you are as an offense. That’s what [head coach Lovie Smith] wants. That’s what we all want.”

Martz went on to talk about how its yards per carry that count.

Translation:  I’m not going to run the ball any more than I have in the past.

On tight end Greg Olsen, whose strength is his athletic talent as a receiver:

“He’s a different tight end than I’ve had in the past but all tight ends now, their first responsibility is they have to be able to put their hand on the line of scrimmage and be a successful blocker. They have to be able to do that job and do it well and then move into [being a] receiver. To just skip by that and say, ‘OK, he’s a terrific receiver,’ well, you may as well put another receiver in there.”

Translation:  Olsen is going to have to learn to be Ernie Conwell.  There won’t be much splitting him out to take advantage of mismatches.

On Jay Cutler, a quarterback who is generally much different from what Martz has had in the past.  His strength is his mobility and ability to work outside the pocket:

“What I told Jay is, if he’s excited about doing those things, that’s great. But you can’t put a fence around Jay and say, ‘This is what he is.’ He’s just too a good a player. There’s nothing this guy can’t accomplish at a high level in the passing game.”

Martz also mentioned how he’s looking forward to teaching Cutler the 5-step drops and the hot reads, things he hasn’t dealt with as much or as well in the past.

Translation:  Cutler’s going to adapt to become a pocket passer who throws the ball on time to a spot.

In fairness, Martz did throw in a sentence about using Cutler’s mobility.  And he did talk about letting the wide receiver determine where they fit into the scheme (even as he mentioned that he’d already made up his mind that Devin Hester was going to be a great slot receiver).  But bottom line, even as we bask in the glow of the Martz brilliance, we see yet another problem associated with that intelligence.  Arrogance.  Really smart people are usually firmly convinced that they are right and they stick to their own way of doing things.  They don’t change their thoughts much once they are established.

Once we strip his comments down to the “Bear” essentials, it becomes apparent that Martz is thinking a lot about adapting the personnel to fit into his ideas.  But he isn’t thinking as much as I would like about adapting those ideas to fit the strengths of the personnel.  The players are going to have to change to fit him.

Such is life with a ‘genius’.  Let’s hope that the Bears won’t be worse for it.

On Thursday, Michael Lombardi at the National Football Post had this to say about the Bears defensive coordinator search:

“…I’d be surprised if the Bears hire a new defensive coordinator. They wanted Perry Fewell, thought they had a commitment from Fewell and he left. Their interest in hiring a defensive coordinator was really just an interest in hiring Fewell.”

Steve Rosenbloom at the Chicago Tribune expressed his thougthts a little differenly:

“Exactly when will the Bears leftover coach name his defensive sock puppet?”

The answer, it turns out, was yesterday.  And neither man was far off in his assessment.  The Bears chose to promote from within by making defensive line coach Rod Marinelli the “new” defensive coordinator.

What a disappointment.

Why they couldn’t have done this the day after Fewell turned them down, I don’t know.  The delay has certainly made them look even worse fools in the eyes the league than the long and winding search for an offensive coordinator did.  At least they were looking at candidates in the interim in that instance.

In any case, near the beginning of this process, I wrote that one of the things we’ve all suspected since head coach Lovie Smith fired Ron Rivera was that he prefers to be surrounded by people who won’t contradict him.  Smith fosters this idea through his attitude with the media.  He habitually stands and bristles any time anyone asks a question which challenges a statement or decision.  For instance, ii is not surprising that Smith chose to release a statement rather than standing before the media to defend this decision to promote a member of the current staff rather than looking to the outside.  Its not that it was inappropriate so much that it was typical for him to spend the minimum amount of time and effort possible to explain himself to the fans and media.

Though we can’t be sure, no one would be surprised if that insecurity carries over to his coaching staff and the team’s defensive philosophy.  The evidence of our eyes certainly supports the idea.  It seems apparent now that Smith considers people who don’t see things as he does as mutinous.

The good new is that Marinelli is someone we can all like who does fill a gap in the team persona.  He is universally considered to be a guy who motivates through the power of positive thinking and a source of external motivation is something the Bears players could use given Smith’s stoic public personality.  But Marinelli is not what the team needed.

I’ve heard multiple times about how the Bears are lacking talent on the defensive side of the ball.  That’s fine but to imply that the defense is totally devoid of talent would be a great exaggeration.  When your team exhibits weaknesses in certain areas, you need someone who can adjust the scheme to fit the talent you have.  If Marinelli could do that, he’d have shown it last year with suggestions from his position as assistant head coach and if Smith could do it himself, he would have done it long before that.

I thought that whoever the Bears hired should bring back more of that creative tension that has evidently been lacking since Rivera’s departure.  With Smith’s previous choice of  Bob Babich and now of Marinelli (not to mention his choice of himself last season) it’s now evident that just isn’t going to happen.  Smith will shuffle the names to make it look like he’s doing something substantial but the reality is that its just the same old philosophy with minimal actual change in ideas that aren’t closely related to his own.

But what’s really disappointing about this selection is what it tells us about Smith and the future of the Bears.  Most people understood that one of former Bears head coach Dick Jauron’s flaws was that he was extremely stubborn.  Jauron has nothing on Smith.  At least Jauron erred on the side of loyalty to those around him.  Smith finds scapegoats and fires assistants like the rest of us throw away used paper towels – which is fine, except that he hasn’t shown a talent for replacing them with better alternatives.

It’s fine if Smith believes that it should be his way or the highway.  But if you are going to have that attitude, you have to be able to step outside yourself to properly evaluate whether what you are doing is working.  Smith apparently can’t do that and even if he could, he’d be unlikely to be able to find ways to fix it.  He can’t see what needs to be done himself and he’s not willing to travel far enough outside his comfort zone to accept new ideas from the outside to help.

That’s a fatal flaw that doesn’t bode well for the Bears prospects as long as Smith is in charge.