The Chicago Bears Fan Forum

I’ve never been a big fan of the mock draft. It always seemed to me like the vast majority of the time these things are put together by a bunch of rubes who wouldn’t know a fly route from the end of a fishing line. I have, therefore, usually restricted myself to only a few drafts run by experts who I think know what they’re talking about (i.e. a darned few).

However I recently felt the need to put one together myself. I began to worry about whether any offensive tackles worthy of the 14th overall pick were going to be left to the Bears. Indeed, Bill Johnson, who represents former Vanderbilt offensive tackle Chris Williams, recently said that he felt as many as 13 of the top 20 teams in the draft might be looking to draft one.

So I set out to play GM and build a mock draft for teams 1 thru 14. Having made up my mind to do this right, I immediately set out to list what I felt were the top 25 draft prospects in order. I scoured the colleges, watched tape of every game, watched the combine workouts and went to every pro day. I then made my list which, by coincidence, looks amazingly like the 25 prospects on Mel Kiper’s Big Board. What can I say? Great minds think alike:

Having spent so much time constructing this list, I felt compelled to spend even more effort scouring rosters, scouting every position player and phoning personal contacts in every city to find out what the team needs were. Having spent so much effort on the first list, no longer having a job helped tremendously with the time constraints on the second, though not with the phone bills.

By incredible coincidence, the team needs which I found to be most relevant exactly matched those determined by ESPN’s Todd McShay. Who ‘da thunk it?

1. Miami Dolphins
   Needs: OL,DT,LB,CB,QB
   Pick: Jake Long
   Comments: The Dolphins could realistically take Ryan here. He’s a higher ranked prospect but he’d be expensive. I’m betting that Bill Parcells will feel that the need at tackle is greater and that they’ll get more bang for their buck there. Left offensive tackles tend to have a lot of value in the first round.
2. St. Louis Rams
   Needs: OT,G,DE,LB,CB
   Pick: Chris Long
   Comments: Pass rushing defensive linemen are hard to pass up.
3. Atlanta Falcons
   Needs: QB,DT,OT,S,RB
   Pick: Glenn Dorsey.
   Comments: The smart pick though they could go Matt Ryan. They’ve got no QB worthy of the name on the roster. I’m betting they’ll consider DT to be the bigger need and Dorsey to be the safer pick.
4. Oakland Raiders
   Needs: OT,DT,RB,WR,DE
   Pick: Darren McFadden
   Comments: Highest rated player at a position of need.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
   Needs: OT,G,CB,DE,C
   Pick: Ryan Clady
   Comments: I thought it was interesting that Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft had the Chiefs taking Brandon Albert here and moving him to tackle. Interesting idea but too unorthodox for me with Clady still sitting there.
6. New York Jets
   Needs: DE,CB,WR,LB,RB
   Pick: Vernon Gholston
   Comments: Highest rated player at a position of need.
7. New England
   Needs: Not much. For depth: RB,LB,S,CB,OL
   Pick: Sedrick Ellis
   Comments: Best player available who won’t cost an arm and a leg to sit behind Tom Brady.
8. Baltimore Ravens
   Needs: QB,CB,DE,LB
   Pick: Matt Ryan
   Comments: About time.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
   Needs: DT,DE,LB,OT
   Pick: Brandon Albert
   Comments: I almost put Gholston here, having found out only this week that one player can, indeed, play for two different organizations at once. Some how I think Albert is the better choice. They could also take Chris Williams.
10. New Orleans Saints
    Needs: DT,TE,LB,CB,C
    Pick: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
    Comments: Highest rated player at a position of need.
11. Buffalo Bills
    Needs: DT,WR,CB,LB,TE
    Pick: Aqib Talib
    Comments: Highest rated player at a position of need.
12. Denver Broncos
    Needs: DT,OT,LB,S,WR
    Pick: Chris Williams
    Comments: The Broncos could go anywhere with this pick. There isn’t a DT or a WR worthy of the pick anywhere in site. They really need to trade down. I mean they all want to but the Broncos really need to. In any case, not being known for using highly rated RBs in their offense, I went with the best player available behind Mendenhall.
13. Carolina Panthers
    Needs: OT,S,DE,WR,DT
    Pick: Phillip Merling
    Comments: Highest rated player at a position of need. Note that if Chris Williams makes it this far, they’ll probably take him.

OK, and that leaves us with the situation below:

Conclusion: the Bears are in some trouble with this pick.

They could take Mendenhall. He’ll probably be the best player available. But as I said before, taking another running back in the first round is not a great idea. The Bears would rather see Cedric Benson pushed by another draft pick but not a first rounder. They’ve been loading up on young linebackers so Mayo and Rivers are almost certainly out. Merling is a possibility but they are set at defensive end and hoping Dan Bazuin develops for depth.

Bottom line is that though the Bears would really like to see Chris Williams fall to them, I don’t see it. If they want help where they need it most, they’ll have to take Jeff Otah. Not the kind of pick that will cause laughter in draft rooms all over the country but not at all ideal. It’s a slight reach and Otah is supposedly more suitable for the right side where the Bears would really like to have someone on the left.

So the answer to the question is, “Yes, the Bears will probably be able to take an offensive tackle if they really want one.” But with so many teams ahead of them, all looking for offensive linemen, the odds are good that they’ll have to take whoever is left. That will likely be Otah. The age old question is, do you take a guy who is at the right position even though he isn’t an ideal fit or do you take the best player available regardless of position? I think I’d take Otah. We’ll see what Angelo thinks.

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