[CBFF] Bears / Fins Mach-up - Extensive Analysis

[Steve Behrens]

'85 All Over Again for Dolphins, Bears?

(Sports Network) - In the ramp-up for this Sunday's battle between the Miami
Dolphins and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, no one will forget to mention
the year 1985.

It was in that season that the 12-0 Bears, having outscored their previous
three opponents by a composite score of 104 to 3, went into Miami and were
handed a stunning 38-24 defeat, which would remain their only loss during a
Super Bowl-winning campaign.

The circumstances this week are somewhat similar, in that the Bears a
perfect 7-0 for the first time since 1985, have been the NFL's most dominant
outfit this season, and are yet again putting their flawless record on the
lineup against the Miami Dolphins.

The fact that the '85 Dolphins were a quality football team, one that went
12-4 and reached the AFC Championship, while this year's edition of the Fins
is 1-6 with an anchor, might be glossed over just a bit.

But the facts should never get in the way of a good parallel.

Even at 1-6, the Dolphins will come off their bye week seeking to prevent
Chicago from becoming the first team since Miami in '72 to go through an
entire season unblemished. Nick Saban's club has lost four in a row since
posting its only win of the season, a 13-10 triumph over Tennessee in Week
3. Quarterback Joey Harrington will this week take his fourth shot at his
first win as Miami's starter, having gone 0-3 since replacing the
ineffective and ailing Daunte Culpepper in Week 5.

The Bears are fresh off a 41-10 thrashing of the 49ers, a game which they
led at halftime, 41-0, before putting on the brakes. Chicago and
Indianapolis come into Week 9 as the NFL's lone remaining unbeaten outfits.

SERIES HISTORY

The Dolphins lead the all-time series with the Bears, 6-3, including a 27-9
home victory when the teams last met, in 2002. Chicago had won the previous
meeting between the clubs, a 36-33 overtime decision on the road in 1997.
Miami is 2-1 in Chicago all-time, including a 16-13 overtime win in its last
trip there, in 1991. The Bears' only home victory over Miami took place in
1988.

As mentioned, the most memorable meeting between the teams took place during
the 1985 regular season, when the Dolphins handed the Bears their only loss
of the year in the form of a 38-24 Monday night victory in south Florida.

The Dolphins' Saban and Bears' Lovie Smith have never met one another, nor
each other's respective franchise, as head coaches.

DOLPHINS OFFENSE VS. BEARS DEFENSE

Harrington (912 passing yards, 3 TD, 7 INT) has not represented a terrific
upgrade over the hobbled Culpepper (929 passing yards, 2 TD, 3 INT),
replacing Culpepper's bloated number of sacks absorbed (21 in four games)
with his own affinity toward turning the football over. Harrington threw
three picks against the Packers in Week 7, overshadowing a career-best
414-yard, two- touchdown performance that came on 33-of-62 passing. The
signal-caller's top target was No. 2 wideout Marty Booker (20 receptions, 1
TD), who had seven catches for 110 yards and a touchdown in his best game
since 2004. Booker played for the Bears from 1999 through 2003 before being
traded on Aug. 23, 2004, in a deal that netted Chicago defensive end Adewale
Ogunleye. Tight end Randy McMichael (31 receptions) also had seven catches
against Green Bay, and backup receivers Derek Hagan (13 receptions, 1 TD)
and Wes Welker (39 receptions) combined for 11 catches and 101 yards. No. 1
wideout Chris Chambers (28 receptions, 3 TD) logged just two receptions for
29 yards against the Pack. Harrington has been sacked five times since
taking over primary QB duties.

Harrington could have major trouble avoiding mistakes against a Chicago
defense that leads the NFL in forced fumbles lost (14), and is tied for the
league lead in takeaways (22) and turnover margin (+11). The Bears forced
three lost fumbles and two interceptions against the Niners last Sunday,
with linebacker Brian Urlacher and cornerback Ricky Manning, Jr. both
grabbing picks of Alex Smith and strong safety Todd Johnson forcing two of
the fumbles. Manning, who plays primarily in nickel situations, is tied for
the NFL lead in interceptions. Elsewhere in the secondary, cornerback
Charles Tillman (36 tackles, 1 INT) had eight tackles last week. The pass
rush has been paced by rookie phenom Mark Anderson (7.5 sacks), who is just
one off the NFL sack lead as Week 9 begins. Also looking to get through to
Harrington this week will be Ogunleye (2.5 sacks), who was a 2003 Pro Bowler
with the Dolphins before being dealt for Booker.

After posting an encouraging performance in the form of his first 100-yard
game of the year in Week 6 against the Jets, Dolphins running back Ronnie
Brown (464 rushing yards, 4 TD, 25 receptions) took a step back in the loss
to the Packers. The No. 2 overall pick of the 2005 Draft carried 15 times
for 59 yards in the game, adding a career-high 63 receiving yards on five
catches out of the backfield. Apart from the Jets game, Brown is averaging
just 3.37 yards per rush on the year. Backup Sammy Morris spelled Brown with
a five-yard carry and a 44-yard catch against Green Bay.

Brown will be operating against a Bears team that ranks fifth in the NFL
against the run (82.0 yard per game) as Week 9 begins, and boasts heralded
run-stoppers such as Urlacher (55 tackles), fellow linebacker Lance Briggs
(56 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), and tackles Tommie Harris (14 tackles, 5 sacks)
and Tank Johnson (11 tackles, 1 sack). The Chicago front seven will be
looking to bounce back from last week's performance, when they allowed the
49ers' Frank Gore to reel off several big runs en route to a 111-yard
afternoon.

BEARS OFFENSE VS. DOLPHINS DEFENSE

Bears fans breathed a major sigh of relief last week, when quarterback Rex
Grossman shook off the worst outing of his young career to carve up the
49ers in a mesmerizing first-half performance. Grossman was 18-of-22 passing
for 202 yards and three touchdowns in the first 30 minutes against San
Francisco, and scarcely took to the air thereafter before yielding to backup
Brian Griese in garbage time. Grossman, who committed six turnovers in
Chicago's 24-23 win over Arizona in Week 6, posted his fourth 2006 QB rating
of 100 or better against the Niners. The quarterback's main triumvirate of
pass-catchers this season has been wideouts Muhsin Muhammad (32 receptions,
2 TD) and Bernard Berrian (26 receptions, 4 TD) along with tight end Desmond
Clark (26 receptions, 3 TD). Clark had six catches for 86 yards and two
touchdowns last Sunday, while Muhammad posted five grabs and a touchdown of
his own. The Bears offensive line has allowed just six sacks of Grossman
this season.

Saban will institute a change in the Miami secondary this week, as strong
safety and third-leading tackler Travares Tillman (42 tackles) will be
benched in favor of Yeremiah Bell (15 tackles, 1 sack). Bell, a
third-year-pro out of Eastern Kentucky, has broken up six passes on the
season. Elsewhere in the secondary, cornerbacks Will Allen (31 tackles, 1
INT, 1 sack) and Andre' Goodman (17 tackles) will be charged with stopping
Muhammad and Berrian. In the pass rush, Jason Taylor (31 tackles, 7 sacks)
ranks among NFL leaders in sacks, and has six sacks and four forced fumbles
in his past four games combined. The Dolphins are fourth in the league
against the pass (174.4 yards per game), but have also faced the
third-fewest passing attempts in the league (198).

Following a slow start to the 2006 season, Bears running back Thomas Jones
(538 rushing yards, 3 TD, 18 receptions) has picked up the pace to the tune
of two 100-yard rushing days in his last three games. Jones carried 23 times
for a season-high 111 yards and a touchdown in last week's win over the
49ers, also catching four passes for 26 yards out of the backfield. Backup
and 2005 No. 4 overall Draft pick Cedric Benson (174 rushing yards, 3 TD)
also got in on the action, carrying eight times for 26 yards and his third
touchdown of the year. Fullback Jason McKie (13 receptions), who has
effectively paved the way for both backs this season, contributed three
catches for 37 yards last week.

Jones and Benson will be up against a Miami run-stop unit that ranks near
the top of the league with just 3.3 yards per carry allowed, and has
surrendered only two touchdowns on the ground all year. At the center of
that effort is middle linebacker Zach Thomas (67 tackles, 1 INT), who has
four double-digit tackles performances to his credit this season. Fellow LB
and second-year-pro Channing Crowder (53) is second on the team in stops.
The Dolphins use a four- man rotation at defensive tackle, with Vonnie
Holliday (30 tackles, 2 sacks) and Keith Traylor (23 tackles, 3 sacks)
ranking as the most productive members of that unit thus far. Traylor played
for the Bears from 2001 through 2003.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

It is difficult to forget that the Dolphins were considered to be among the
league's top teams heading into this season, though most observers long ago
gave up hope that Miami would actually deliver on its immense promise. But
the Dolphins do have talent, and coming off a restful bye week, there is
reason to believe that they can strap it up for one game in a quest to beat
an elite NFL team. The Bears are too good to allow it to happen, but in a
trap game that precedes a big Sunday night contest against the Giants, look
for them to sputter a bit more than usual before finally providing a
knockout punch in the fourth quarter.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Bears 20, Dolphins 10