[CBFF] Week 13 DVOA Ratings

[Steve Behrens]

I wonder why one DVOA ranking wouldn't be the same as another?

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6217244

-Behr


On 11/29/06, Jacob Mann Jones <jacobmannjones at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Thought everyone would enjoy the break in the monotony of the run of
> the mill statistics and rankings. So with a Sabermetric take from the
> football side here are this weeks updated DVOA rankings and a brief
> explanation on what the different metrics mean and how they are
> measured. Enjoy!
>
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/11/28/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/4612/
>
> 1) Bears, 9.5
> 2) Patriots, 8.7
> 3) Ravens, 8.5
> 4) Chargers, 8.4
> 5) Cowboys, 8.2
> 6) Jaguars, 7.7
> 7) Colts, 7.3
> 8) Bengals, 6.6
> 9) Broncos, 6.6
> 10) Saints, 6.4
> 11) Eagles, 6.2
> 12) Chiefs, 6.2
>
> DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for total defense as well
> as rushing and passing defense separated. The DVOA system is explained
> here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php). All numbers below
> are adjusted based on strength of schedule. They are also adjusted to
> an average percentage of fumbles recovered by the offense. The
> exceptions are the three columns marked NON-ADJUSTED.
>
> Rushing includes all rushing, not just running backs.
>
> OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as
> well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL
> DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico
> City) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA (second table) does not
> include these adjustments.
>
> WEIGHTED DVOA epresents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing
> right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent
> games more important than earlier games.
>
> The Special Teams lists an estimate of how many points, compared to
> league average, each team receives from the five elements of special
> teams: field goals/extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, punt
> returns. The total is then converted into a DVOA percentage so that it
> can be added in to offense and defense to create total team DVOA.
>
> Field goal rating compares each field goal to the league-average
> percentage of field goals from that distance. Yards of field position
> from the other four elements of special teams are translated into
> points using a method that gives each yard line a point value based on
> the average next score an NFL offense is worth from that point on the
> field. Punts, punt returns, and kickoffs are based on net yardage.
> Kickoff returns are judged on return yardage only. The system is
> explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php).
> Two-point conversions and onside kicks are not included.
>
> All special teams numbers are adjusted for weather/altitude based on
> stadium type (cold, warm, dome, Denver) and week, with the exception
> of the two columns at the far right marked NON-ADJUSTED. VOA
> represents the five elements of special teams without weather
> adjustments. VOA w/HIDDEN adds two secondary elements of special teams
> over which teams have virtually no control: opponent field goal
> efficiency and opponent kickoff length.
>
> *** **** #1 CHICAGO BEARS (9-2) *** ***
> 32.1% Total DVOA (#1 Rank)
> 30.6% Weighted DVOA (#2 Rank)
>
> -3.5% Offense DVOA (#18 Off. Rank)
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff.php
> -5.3% WEI. Ofense (#20 Rank)
> -3.2% Pass Offense (#18 Rank)
> -3.8% Rushing Offense (#14 Rank)
> -2.9% Total Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> -3.0% Passing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> -2.9%Rushing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> 11.1 VAR. (#2 Rank)
>
> -27.8% Defense DVOA (#1 Def. Rank)
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php
> -28.7% WEI. Defense (#1 Rank)
> 34.9% Pass Defense (#1 Rank)
> 19.7% Rush Defense (#3 Rank)
> -37.3% Total Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> -42.5% Pass Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> -31.2% Rush Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> 5.0% VAR. (#19 Rank)
>
> 7.8% Special Teams DVOA (#1 ST Rank)
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst.php
> 7.2% WEI. ST (#1 Rank)
> 12.7 FG/XP
> 15.6 Kick
> -3.5 Kick Return
> -4.6 Punt
> 11.3 Punt Return
> 7.8% VOA NON-ADJUSTED
> 9.9% w/Hidden NON-ADJUSTED
> 1.3% VAR. (#5 Rank)
>
> This weeks opponent:
> *** *** #17 MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-6) *** ***
> -4.8% Total DVOA (#17 Rank)
> -4.5% Weighted DVOA (#17 Rank)
>
> -10.8% Offense DVOA (#26 Off. Rank)
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff.php
> -11.0% WEI. Ofense (#25 Rank)
> -8.8% Pass Offense (#22 Rank)
> -13.1% Rushing Offense (#28 Rank)
> -9.3% Total Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> -4.0% Passing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> 15.5%Rushing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> 2.6 VAR. (#30 Rank)
>
> -7.1% Defense DVOA (#10 Def. Rank)
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php
> -7.5% WEI. Defense (#10 Rank)
> 11.4% Pass Defense (#25 Rank)
> -39.3% Rush Defense (#1 Rank)
> -9.4% Total Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> 7.1% Pass Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> -38.3% Rush Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> 6.4% VAR. (#13 Rank)
>
> -1.1% Special Teams DVOA (#21 ST Rank)
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst.php
> -1.0% WEI. ST (#21 Rank)
> -1.4 FG/XP
> -11.1 Kick
> 0.2 Kick Return
> 1.6 Punt
> 6.4 Punt Return
> -0.1% VOA NON-ADJUSTED
> -1.6% w/Hidden NON-ADJUSTED
> 0.6% VAR. (#26 Rank)
>
> ~ Jacob Mann Jones
>
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