[CBFF] Bears' Offensive Metrics

[Jacob Mann Jones]

** *** ** *** **QUARTERBACK** *** ** *** **
Quarterbacks are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points
Above Replacement.  This number represents the total number of points
scored due to plays where this QB passed or carried the ball, compared
to a replacement-level QB in the same game situations.  DPAR (and its
cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further
explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar).

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over
Average.  This number represents value, per play, over an average QB
in the same game situations.  The more positive the DVOA rating, the
better the player's performance.  DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which
isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here
(http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa).

The simple version: DPAR means a quarterback with more total value.
DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.

Passes and Yards include sacks and aborted snaps. Both count against a
quarterback's value. Fumbles count the same whether lost to the
defense or retained by the offense.

PASSING: Minimum 72 passes, 40 players ranked

QB#8 REX GROSSMAN

11.0 DPAR (#22
19.0 PAR (#17
-6.1% DVOA (#24
-1.1 VOA
346 Passes
2301 Yards
18 TD
2 FK
4 FL
14 INT
55% CompPct

** *** ** *** **RUNNING BACK** *** ** *** **
Running backs are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points
Above Replacement.  This number represents the total number of points
scored due to plays where this RB carried/caught the ball, compared to
a replacement-level RB in the same game situations.  DPAR (and its
cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further
explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar).

The next statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over
Average.  This number represents value, per play, over an average RB
in the same game situations.  The more positive the DVOA rating, the
better the player's performance.  DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which
isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here
(http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa).

The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the
player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the
definition of success being different based on down and distance)
divided by total running plays.  A player with higher VOA and a low
success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of
scrimmage.  A player with lower VOA and a high success rate generally
gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. Success Rate (which
used to be called "Running Back Batting Average") is further explained
here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=254&cat=11).
It is not adjusted for opponent.

The simple version: DPAR means a running back with more total value.
DVOA means a running back with more value per play.

All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

RUSHING: Minimum 60 rushes, 50 players ranked

RB#20 THOMAS JONES
17.6 DPAR (#10
19.1 PAR (#10
2.7% DVOA (#21
4.0% VOA
235 Runs
946 Yards
4 TD
1 FUM
50% Suc Rate (#12

RB#32 CEDRIC BENSON
3.1 DPAR (#34
6.5 PAR (#26
-3.4% DVOA (#28
5.9% VOA
89 Runs
312 Yards
4 TD
0 FUM
43% Suc Rate (#32

** *** ** *** **WIDE RECEIVER** *** ** *** **
Wide receivers are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted
Points Above Replacement.  This number represents the total number of
points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to
a replacement-level WR in the same game situations.  DPAR (and its
cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further
explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar).

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over
Average.  This number represents value, per play, over an average WR
in the same game situations.  The more positive the DVOA rating, the
better the player's performance.  DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which
isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here
(http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa).

DPAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both
complete and incomplete. Catch % represents the percentage of passes
to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes,
not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly
available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for
this.

We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the
performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the
other.

These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not
performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking
and drawing double teams.

"Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards
are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of
touchdown passes.

All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

The simple version: DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value.
DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.

RECEIVING: Minimum 36 passes, 77 players ranked

WR#87 MUHSIN MUHAMMAD
10.2 DPAR (#32
10.8 PAR (#25
3.0% DVOA (#41
4.2% VOA
84 Passes
632 Yards
4 TD
55% CatchPct

WR#80 BERNARD BERRIAN
5.6 DPAR (#48
5.7 PAR (#49
-2.4% DVOA (#49
-2.1% VOA
66 Passes
599 Yards
4 TD
48% CatchPct

WR#81 DAVIS
-0.7 DPAR (#69
-0.9 PAR (#67
-17.7% DVOA (#69
-18.7% VOA
40 Passes
224 Yards
2 TD
43% CatchPct

WR#16 MARK BRADLEY
6.0 DPAR
6.4 PAR
46.3% DVOA
50.4% VOA
15 Passes
179 Yards
2 TD
67%Catch Pct

WR#12 JUSTIN GAGE
-1.1 DPAR
-1.6 PAR
-34.8% DVOA
-45.4% VOA
8 Passes
68 Yards
0 TD
50% CatchPct

** *** ** *** **TIGHT END** *** ** *** **
Tight ends are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points
Above Replacement.  This number represents the total number of points
scored due to plays where this TE caught the ball, compared to a
replacement-level TE in the same game situations.  DPAR (and its
cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further
explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar).

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over
Average.  This number represents value, per play, over an average TE
in the same game situations.  The more positive the DVOA rating, the
better the player's performance.  DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which
isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here
(http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa).

DPAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both
complete and incomplete. Catch % represents the percentage of passes
to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes,
not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly
available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for
this.

We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the
performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the
other.

These statistics measure only passes thrown to the tight end, not
performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking
and drawing double teams.

"Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards
are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of
touchdown passes.

All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

The simple version: DPAR means a tight end with more total value. DVOA
means a tight end with more value per play.

TE#88 DESMOND CLARK
10.7 DPAR (#7
12.9 PAR (#3
15.0% DVOA (#7
21.7% VOA
57 Passes
447 Yards
4 TD
58% CatchPct

TE#85 GILMORE
0.1 DPAR
0.3 PAR
-12.0% DVOA
-7.2% VOA
8 Passes
20 Yards
2 TD
63% CatchPct