[CBFF] Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Thu Nov 30 22:09:04 MST 2006

Gotcha.  Thanks!

Behr

On 11/30/06, mactbone <mactbone0 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> One ranking is based on Weighted DVOA which reduces
> the effect of early games - so the games against the
> Packers and Lions are worth less now, while the other
> is straight DVOA which considers all games equal.
> -Chris
>
> --- Steve Behrens <steve.behrens at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > I wonder why one DVOA ranking wouldn't be the same
> > as another?
> >
> > http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6217244
> >
> > -Behr
> >
> >
> > On 11/29/06, Jacob Mann Jones
> > <jacobmannjones at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Thought everyone would enjoy the break in the
> > monotony of the run of
> > > the mill statistics and rankings. So with a
> > Sabermetric take from the
> > > football side here are this weeks updated DVOA
> > rankings and a brief
> > > explanation on what the different metrics mean and
> > how they are
> > > measured. Enjoy!
> > >
> > >
> >
> http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/11/28/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/4612/
> > >
> > > 1) Bears, 9.5
> > > 2) Patriots, 8.7
> > > 3) Ravens, 8.5
> > > 4) Chargers, 8.4
> > > 5) Cowboys, 8.2
> > > 6) Jaguars, 7.7
> > > 7) Colts, 7.3
> > > 8) Bengals, 6.6
> > > 9) Broncos, 6.6
> > > 10) Saints, 6.4
> > > 11) Eagles, 6.2
> > > 12) Chiefs, 6.2
> > >
> > > DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for
> > total defense as well
> > > as rushing and passing defense separated. The DVOA
> > system is explained
> > > here
> > (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php). All
> > numbers below
> > > are adjusted based on strength of schedule. They
> > are also adjusted to
> > > an average percentage of fumbles recovered by the
> > offense. The
> > > exceptions are the three columns marked
> > NON-ADJUSTED.
> > >
> > > Rushing includes all rushing, not just running
> > backs.
> > >
> > > OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on
> > strength of opponent as
> > > well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as
> > equal value. SPECIAL
> > > DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold,
> > dome, Denver/Mexico
> > > City) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA
> > (second table) does not
> > > include these adjustments.
> > >
> > > WEIGHTED DVOA epresents an attempt to figure out
> > how a team is playing
> > > right now, as opposed to over the season as a
> > whole, by making recent
> > > games more important than earlier games.
> > >
> > > The Special Teams lists an estimate of how many
> > points, compared to
> > > league average, each team receives from the five
> > elements of special
> > > teams: field goals/extra points, kickoffs, kick
> > returns, punts, punt
> > > returns. The total is then converted into a DVOA
> > percentage so that it
> > > can be added in to offense and defense to create
> > total team DVOA.
> > >
> > > Field goal rating compares each field goal to the
> > league-average
> > > percentage of field goals from that distance.
> > Yards of field position
> > > from the other four elements of special teams are
> > translated into
> > > points using a method that gives each yard line a
> > point value based on
> > > the average next score an NFL offense is worth
> > from that point on the
> > > field. Punts, punt returns, and kickoffs are based
> > on net yardage.
> > > Kickoff returns are judged on return yardage only.
> > The system is
> > > explained here
> > (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php).
> > > Two-point conversions and onside kicks are not
> > included.
> > >
> > > All special teams numbers are adjusted for
> > weather/altitude based on
> > > stadium type (cold, warm, dome, Denver) and week,
> > with the exception
> > > of the two columns at the far right marked
> > NON-ADJUSTED. VOA
> > > represents the five elements of special teams
> > without weather
> > > adjustments. VOA w/HIDDEN adds two secondary
> > elements of special teams
> > > over which teams have virtually no control:
> > opponent field goal
> > > efficiency and opponent kickoff length.
> > >
> > > *** **** #1 CHICAGO BEARS (9-2) *** ***
> > > 32.1% Total DVOA (#1 Rank)
> > > 30.6% Weighted DVOA (#2 Rank)
> > >
> > > -3.5% Offense DVOA (#18 Off. Rank)
> > > http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff.php
> > > -5.3% WEI. Ofense (#20 Rank)
> > > -3.2% Pass Offense (#18 Rank)
> > > -3.8% Rushing Offense (#14 Rank)
> > > -2.9% Total Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > -3.0% Passing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > -2.9%Rushing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 11.1 VAR. (#2 Rank)
> > >
> > > -27.8% Defense DVOA (#1 Def. Rank)
> > > http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php
> > > -28.7% WEI. Defense (#1 Rank)
> > > 34.9% Pass Defense (#1 Rank)
> > > 19.7% Rush Defense (#3 Rank)
> > > -37.3% Total Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > -42.5% Pass Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > -31.2% Rush Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 5.0% VAR. (#19 Rank)
> > >
> > > 7.8% Special Teams DVOA (#1 ST Rank)
> > > http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst.php
> > > 7.2% WEI. ST (#1 Rank)
> > > 12.7 FG/XP
> > > 15.6 Kick
> > > -3.5 Kick Return
> > > -4.6 Punt
> > > 11.3 Punt Return
> > > 7.8% VOA NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 9.9% w/Hidden NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 1.3% VAR. (#5 Rank)
> > >
> > > This weeks opponent:
> > > *** *** #17 MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-6) *** ***
> > > -4.8% Total DVOA (#17 Rank)
> > > -4.5% Weighted DVOA (#17 Rank)
> > >
> > > -10.8% Offense DVOA (#26 Off. Rank)
> > > http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff.php
> > > -11.0% WEI. Ofense (#25 Rank)
> > > -8.8% Pass Offense (#22 Rank)
> > > -13.1% Rushing Offense (#28 Rank)
> > > -9.3% Total Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > -4.0% Passing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 15.5%Rushing Offense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 2.6 VAR. (#30 Rank)
> > >
> > > -7.1% Defense DVOA (#10 Def. Rank)
> > > http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php
> > > -7.5% WEI. Defense (#10 Rank)
> > > 11.4% Pass Defense (#25 Rank)
> > > -39.3% Rush Defense (#1 Rank)
> > > -9.4% Total Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 7.1% Pass Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > -38.3% Rush Defense NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 6.4% VAR. (#13 Rank)
> > >
> > > -1.1% Special Teams DVOA (#21 ST Rank)
> > > http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst.php
> > > -1.0% WEI. ST (#21 Rank)
> > > -1.4 FG/XP
> > > -11.1 Kick
> > > 0.2 Kick Return
> > > 1.6 Punt
> > > 6.4 Punt Return
> > > -0.1% VOA NON-ADJUSTED
> > > -1.6% w/Hidden NON-ADJUSTED
> > > 0.6% VAR. (#26 Rank)
> > >
> > > ~ Jacob Mann Jones
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Check out the CBFF Blog:
> > > blog.chicagobearsfanforum.com
> > > CBFF Homepage:
> > > www.chicagobearsfanforum.com
> > >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Check out the CBFF Blog:
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> >
> === message truncated ===
>
>
>
>
>
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