[CBFF] ST: Watts enters picture at receiver

Tue Sep 5 15:20:45 MDT 2006

We've seen lots of recievers cut and moved without the
Bears really doing anything so I figured I'd look in
Pro Football Prospectus and do a comparison of these
guys. If there's someone I missed, just ask and I'll
type up the stats. The explanation of DVOA is at
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php - short
version at
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/glossary.php
Basically 0% is the average value that all recievers
should have - anything above is good and anything
below is bad.

Pass = Number of times thrown to.

Year - Name           -Rec.-Pass-Yds-Ctch%-TD-(DVOA)
2003 - Javon Walker   -41 - 74 - 716 -55% -9- (21.2%)
2003 - Justin Gage    -17 - 35 - 338 -49% -2- (6.2%)
2003 - Deion Branch   -57 - 104- 803 -55% -3- (2.6%)
2003 - Koren Robinson -65 - 119- 869 -55% -4- (1.6%)
2003 - Ashley Lelie   -37 - 87 - 628 -46% -2- (1.4%)
2003 - Muhsin Muhammad-54 - 100- 837 -54% -3- (-5.3%)
2003 - Randle-El      -37 - 56 - 364 -66% -1- (-12.4%)

Year - Name           -Rec.-Pass-Yds-Ctch%-TD-(DVOA)
2004 - Deion Branch   -35 - 51 - 454 -69% -4- (36.2%)
2004 - Muhsin Muhammad-93 - 160- 1405-58% -16-(23.8%)
2004 - Ashley Lelie   -54 - 101- 1084-53% -7- (22.7%)
2004 - Javon Walker   -89 - 144- 1382-62% -12-(19.1%)
2004 - Randle-El      -43 - 62 - 601 -68% -3- (16.1%)
2004 - Koren Robinson -31 - 67 - 495 -46% -2- (-0.3%)
2004 - Darius Watts   -31 - 53 - 358 -58% -1- (-5.3%)
2004 - Justin Gage    -12 - 28 - 156 -43% -0- (-30.9%)
2004 - Bernard Berrian-15 - 44 - 225 -34% -2- (-43.5%)

Year - Name           -Rec.-Pass-Yds-Ctch%-TD-(DVOA)
2005 - Deion Branch   -78 - 125- 998 -62% -5- (19.5%)
2005 - Bernard Berrian-13 - 25 - 246 -52% -0- (14.8%)
2005 - Koren Robinson -22 - 37 - 347 -59% -1- (5.9%)
2005 - Justin Gage    -31 - 55 - 346 -56% -2- (0.5%)
2005 - Ashley Lelie   -42 - 88 - 770 -48% -1- (0.2%)
2005 - Charles Rogers -14 - 31 - 197 -45% -1- (-6.5%)
2005 - Randle-El      -35 - 70 - 558 -50% -1- (-14.8%)
2005 - Muhsin Muhammad-64 - 136- 750 -47% -4- (-15.8%)
2005 - Mark Bradley   -18 - 36 - 230 -50% -0- (-27.7%)

Darius Watts only played in 6 games and caught 2 balls
in 2005.
Charles Rogers had slightly worse stats in 2003.
Bradley may look bad but for a rookie he's really not
that bad compared to some others - especially with
Orton.
Branch played 9 games in 2004.
BTW, Gage was picked about 20 spots before Branch.

I think looking at these kinds of stats is useful
because raw stats aren't really that helpful. It's a
lot easier to rack up stats if you get thrown at 100+
times just as it's a lot easier to rack up yards if
you get 400+ carries in a year. It's good to see the
quality instead of the quantity.

To me, it looks like Deion Branch and Javon Walker are
clearly the cream of the crop with consistently good
performances, but you have to worry about Walker after
the injury. Gage looks completely average (which may
be good with this recieving corp) and I hope Bradley's
much better this year but next year will be a better
judge of his true talent since it takes at least a
year to get back up to speed after his injury. If
Berrian can make the same kind of leap he made last
year it may not matter who the Bears could've got.
-Chris

> --- Victor Waldron <victor19 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > (um, ok, so the guy was cut by Denver because he
> has
> > problems catching
> > the ball. Don't we already have enough guys like
> > that?)
> > 
> > Watts enters picture at receiver
> > 
> > September 5, 2006
> > 
> > BY BRAD BIGGS Staff Reporter
> 
> 
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam?  Yahoo! Mail has the best spam
> protection around 
> http://mail.yahoo.com 
> 

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam?  Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around 
http://mail.yahoo.com 