[CBFF] ESPNi - Scouts Inc Mock Draft (Update)

[Jerry Madsen]

Updated: April 10, 2007
Russell is Raiders' pick -- for now
Insider
McShay
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
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There are some significant changes to the top-10 picks of this updated
mock draft. Although there was temptation to give the Raiders WR
Calvin Johnson at the top spot, the only way I can justify such a move
is if they sign a veteran quarterback.

Elsewhere, DE Gaines Adams is a reach at No. 2, but I'm working under
the assumption the Lions trade down at least two spots to get a better
value on him. The one rumor I did give in to is the Browns taking RB
Adrian Peterson instead of QB Brady Quinn with the No. 3 pick. As
explained below, this is a worst-case scenario for Quinn, who could
experience a Matt Leinart-like free fall to the Vikings at No. 7 or
the Dolphins at No. 9 overall.

In addition to the noticeable shuffling atop the board, I've added a
second round to this version of the 2007 mock draft. Check back next
week, when I project all 255 picks in the seven-round process.

+ -- Underclassman

1. Oakland Raiders (2-14)

Projected pick: +JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Needs: QB, DT, OT/G, TE, WR, LB, CB, RB
It seems owner Al Davis' captivation with WR Calvin Johnson grows with
each passing day. If the Raiders can talk the Lions into a deal for
veteran QB Josh McCown, it will free Davis to pull the trigger on
Johnson with the No. 1 overall pick. Until then, Russell makes the
most sense for a team loaded with talented wide receivers (Randy Moss,
Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry) but nobody to get them the ball.

2. Detroit (3-13)

Projected pick: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
Needs: QB, ILB, CB, TE, S, WR, C, DT, DE
The Lions hold the keys to the entire top of the draft. The
aforementioned McCown trade could throw the entire top of the board
into flux. Ironically, such a trade could rob the Lions of their trade
value at No. 2. The Buccaneers are rumored to be interested, but only
if Johnson is still on the board. Assuming, for these purposes,
Russell goes No. 1 to the Raiders, the Lions should strike a deal to
move down at least two spots and get a better value for Adams, who is
the top pass-rushing talent in the 2007 class.

3. Cleveland (4-12)

Projected pick: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Needs: CB, QB, RB, LOT, DL, S, OLB, WR
The Browns would love to land Russell with this pick. If he's gone, GM
Phil Savage will have a tough decision between Peterson and QB Brady
Quinn. Although Savage and his staff are still debating the subject,
there are rumblings that they are leaning toward Peterson. Recently
signed free-agent RB Jamal Lewis has loads of mileage on his legs and
the team signed him only to a one-year deal. The veteran back could
split carries with Peterson, which would give the rookie a year to get
acclimated before turning him loose as the full-time starter in 2008.

4. Tampa Bay (4-12)

Projected pick: +Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Needs: WR, DT, S, DE, CB, OT, RB, TE
The Bucs are reportedly already in discussions with the Lions to trade
up if Johnson is on the board at No. 2 overall. Coach Jon Gruden must
be salivating at the possibility of working with a dynamic playmaker
like Johnson. As a side note; if the Buccaneers can't land Johnson
they'll look to bail out of this pick.

5. Arizona (5-11)

Projected pick: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Needs: OT, WLB, CB, DT, DE, TE, S, P
This is best-case scenario for a Cardinals team in desperate need of
an upgrade at offensive tackle. Thomas is the premier offensive line
talent in the 2007 class and he's ready to start immediately.

6. Washington (5-11)

Projected pick: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Needs: DT, DE, G, S, CB, WR, OLB, QB, TE
After setting a franchise record with only 19 sacks in 2006, the
Redskins must upgrade their pass rush. Because Adams is no longer on
the board, Okoye becomes the next-best option. The 19-year-old has
bulked up to 300-plus pounds and recently ran the 40 in the 4.8-second
range at an on-campus workout.

7. Minnesota (6-10)

Projected pick: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Needs: WR, DE, CB, TE, C/G, QB, DT, RB
There are conflicting reports coming out of Minnesota regarding the
Vikings' interest in Quinn. Although they still like the potential of
QB Tarvaris Jackson (last year's second-round pick), it would be
awfully difficult to pass on Quinn if he slips to No. 7. Also, don't
be surprised if the Vikings use Quinn as bait to trade out of this
pick, especially with the Dolphins sitting just a couple spots below
them.

8. Atlanta (7-9)

(from Houston)
Projected pick: +LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Needs: S, DE, OT, CB, G, DT, RB, PK, MLB, QB
OT Levi Brown is a possibility, especially with new head coach Bobby
Petrino looking to get bigger and more physical along the offensive
line. However, Landry is the more highly rated prospect at a position
of equal need. A four-year starter in the SEC, Landry should be ready
to start immediately in the NFL.

9. Miami (6-10)

Projected pick: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
Needs: OT/G, QB, DL, CB, TE, WR, S, RB, LB, C
The Dolphins may consider moving up if Quinn begins to fall.
Otherwise, expect them to take the best available offensive or
defensive lineman at No. 9. Brown, who is this draft's second-rated
offensive tackle behind Thomas, has the size and mobility to solidify
the Dolphins' left tackle position for years to come.

10. Houston (6-10)

(from Atlanta)
Projected pick: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
Needs: CB, WR, S, DT, OLB, DE, OT, RB
The Texans need to find a quality starter opposite Dunta Robinson and
Hall is the top-rated cornerback in this year's class. Also to
consider; if the Browns don't take Peterson at No. 3 overall, he could
slip to the Texans at No. 10. Houston has more pressing needs after
signing veteran RB Ahman Green, but it would be awfully tough to pass
on Peterson -- one year after passing on Reggie Bush (Saints).

11. San Francisco (7-9)

Projected pick: +Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Needs: DT/DE, OLB, S, OT, WR, RB, ILB, TE, FB, C/G
Instead of reaching for WR Ted Ginn Jr., the 49ers should use this
pick to bolster their defensive front. Branch is slipping on many
teams' boards due to fear regarding his inconsistent motor and
potential for weight issues. But if the 323-pounder is still on the
board at No. 11, it could prove to be a worthwhile risk for the
ascending 49ers.

12. Buffalo (7-9)

Projected pick: Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
Needs: RB, CB, OLB, TE, DT, FB, WR, ILB, FS
It's too high to take a chance on RB Marshawn Lynch and Hall is
already off the board. That's why, in this scenario, the Bills should
address a lesser need by taking Willis, who ranks as the premier
linebacker prospect in the 2007 class. Willis has the workout numbers
to match his production as a three-year starter in the SEC.

13. St. Louis (8-8)

Projected pick: +Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Needs: DT, DE, LB, CB, RB, G/C, WR, S
The Rams will focus on defense early in the draft. With Okoye and
Branch off the board, there isn't an ideal fit at defensive tackle.
Taking Anderson would make a great deal of sense, as he has the size
and agility to emerge as an impact full-time starter in the future. As
a rookie, Anderson could rotate with newly acquired James Hall at the
end spot opposite Leonard Little.

14. Carolina (8-8)

Projected pick: +Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
Needs: TE, S, ILB, DE, OT, WR, OLB, DE
The Panthers could use this pick to address needs at safety (Reggie
Nelson and Michael Griffin) or linebacker (Lawrence Timmons and Paul
Posluszny), but Olsen is the best fit if Willis is off the board.
Olsen is the only first-round talent in this year's tight end class
and has the speed to take pressure off WRs Steve Smith and Keyshawn
Johnson.

15. Pittsburgh (8-8)

Projected pick: +Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State
Needs: OLB, G, DE, CB, RB, WR, C, ILB, TE, FB
The Steelers need to address their outside linebacker situation early
in this year's draft. While Posluszny and DE/OLB Jarvis Moss are
possibilities, Timmons seems to make the most sense as new head coach
Mike Tomlin transitions from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defensive alignment.
Timmons can provide some pass-rushing production in the team's current
3-4 system, but he also projects as a better fit as a weakside
linebacker in the 4-3 scheme.

16. Green Bay (8-8)

Projected pick: +Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
Needs: RB, S, TE, WR, DT, CB, OLB, G
The Packers are in desperate need of offensive playmakers. QB Brett
Favre could help maximize Lynch's explosiveness and versatility if
they're working in the same backfield in 2007.

17. Jacksonville (8-8)

Projected pick: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
Needs: S, DE, QB, OLB, WR, CB, DT, MLB, TE, G, P
The Jaguars could use this pick on a better pure pass-rusher or on a
safety like Nelson, but Carriker is the better value in this scenario.
At 296 pounds, Carriker has the size, strength, quickness and
technique to develop into a quality every-down starter at the next
level.

18. Cincinnati (8-8)

Projected pick: +Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
Needs: CB, DT, OLB, TE, S, OT, WR, DE, QB
The Bengals are likely to use this pick on the best defensive player
available, particularly at cornerback, defensive tackle and outside
linebacker. Revis' outstanding workout at Pittsburgh's pro day last
month helped solidify his standing in the mid-to-late first-round
range. Revis is instinctive in zone coverage, supports the run
effectively and also has value as a potential punt return specialist.

19. Tennessee (8-8)

Projected pick: +Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State
Needs: WR, RB, CB, DE, DT, MLB, G/O, S, OLB, QB
The Titans would be elated if Ginn Jr. slipped to them at No. 19. Ginn
Jr. has the speed to stretch the field vertically for QB Vince Young,
who needs more weapons to work with on the perimeter. The Titans would
benefit from Ginn Jr.'s world-class speed in the return game, as well.

20. N.Y. Giants (8-8)

Projected pick: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State
Needs: OLB, CB, OT, DT, WR, RB, TE, G/C, P, PK, ILB
The Giants' biggest need is at the outside linebacker position, so
Posluszny is a perfect match at No. 20 overall. The career tackles
leader at "Linebacker U", Posluszny is instinctive, quick and tough
enough to take over as a starter immediately.

21. Denver (9-7)

Projected pick: +Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
Needs: DE, WR, S, OT, DT, MLB, RB, CB
The Broncos solidified their secondary by trading for Dre' Bly, who
will start opposite Champ Bailey. Drafting a pass-rushing threat like
Moss would be the next step toward fixing a pass defense that ranked
21st in 2006.

22. Dallas (9-7)

Projected pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Needs: CB, WR, OT, DE, PK, C, S, NT, ILB, OLB
The Cowboys would have to consider a cornerback like Aaron Ross or
offensive tackle Joe Staley, but Bowe is a better prospect at another
position of need. The 6-foot-2, 222-pound wideout displays the size,
agility and playmaking skills to develop into a quality starter at the
next level. As a rookie in 2007, Bowe could serve as an excellent
third option behind aging veterans Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn.

23. Kansas City (9-7)

Projected pick: +Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Needs: WR, OT, DT, CB, DE, QB, G, FB, LB, C
Despite his subpar workout results at USC's recent pro day, Jarrett is
one of the top-four receivers in this class and he's enough of a
playmaker to warrant the Chiefs' consideration at No. 23 overall. If
Kansas City doesn't go with a wide receiver, it could find a similar
value at cornerback with Aaron Ross, offensive tackle with Joe Staley
or defensive tackle with Justin Harrell.

24. New England (12-4) (from Seattle)

Projected pick: Aaron Ross, CB/RS, Texas
Needs: ILB, S, CB, OLB, RB, OT, QB, P, NT
The Patriots never act as if they're handcuffed by needs during draft
weekend, but the Asante Samuel situation should increase their
interest in this year's cornerback crop. Ross lacks ideal man-to-man
cover skills but he has the size, instincts and playmaking ability to
emerge as a difference-maker in the type of zone-heavy defensive
scheme the Patriots run. Ross also can help in the return game, which
adds to his value.

25. N.Y. Jets (10-6)

Projected pick: +Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Needs: CB, OLB, TE, WR, NT, ILB,C, QB, S
Considering their need of an upgrade at cornerback, Houston should be
on the Jets' short list of prospects in this scenario. Different teams
have differing opinions regarding Houston's value. Although he
certainly has room to improve in regards to his technique and overall
run-support skills, Houston is blessed with outstanding speed,
athleticism and upper-body strength.

26. Philadelphia (10-6)

Projected pick: Michael Griffin, S, Texas
Needs: CB, S, DE, OLB, RB, WR, TE, MLB
Although the Eagles certainly can use depth at several different
positions, it's hard to find a glaring weakness at any starting spot
on their depth chart. One thing is certain; the Eagles will not be
handcuffed by positions of need in this year's draft. With that in
mind, Griffin is a good value because he brings experience and
versatility to the table after notching 250 tackles during his last
two seasons at Texas.

27. New Orleans (10-6)

Projected pick: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
Needs: :CB, LB, DT, WR, TE, DE, G/C, QB
The Saints would likely take a top cornerback should Ross or Houston
fall to them at No. 27. However, the team could address another
position of need by drafting Harrell, who is one of the late-rising
prospects in this year's class for a couple reasons. First, teams are
comfortable that he's completely recovered from a torn biceps injury
that sidelined him most of his senior season. Second, there isn't
enough supply at the defensive tackle position to meet the demand of
NFL teams.

28. New England (12-4)

Projected pick: +Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Griffin would be a better fit if he falls because he's more versatile
than Nelson. The team could also use this pick on ILB John Beason. But
in this scenario, Nelson is the best available option. At 6 feet and
198 pounds, Nelson has very good range and playmaking potential as a
center fielder-type free safety. Also remember that head coach Bill
Belichick loves players from Florida because he has tremendous respect
for coach Urban Meyer.

29. Baltimore (13-3)

Projected pick: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
Needs: CB, OT, OLB, ILB, FB, C/G, QB, S, DE
The Ravens will look to target the best available player at
cornerback, linebacker and offensive tackle. In this scenario, Staley
is the pick. He's a fast-rising prospect with excellent feet and the
frame to get bigger/stronger. With Jonathan Ogden threatening to
retire, Staley becomes the future at left tackle for the Ravens.

30. San Diego (14-2)

Projected pick: +Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Needs: WR, S, ILB, CB, DL, RB, G, OT, OLB, LS
The Chargers would be thrilled if the speedy Meachem fell to them.
Although he may never be a pure No. 1 receiver in the NFL, Meachem has
the speed and playmaking skills to exploit defenses when they
overcompensate for RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates. The
team also could take the best available safety or linebacker with this
pick.

31. Chicago (13-3)

Projected pick: +John Beason, OLB, Miami
Needs: DT, OLB, WR, TE, RB, OT, QB, S, G
The Bears need to address the outside linebacker position early, even
if they fail to trade disgruntled starter Lance Briggs prior to draft
weekend. Beason is a fringe first-rounder with the size, quickness and
tackling skills to emerge as a quality starter in the NFL. Durability
concerns and lack of ideal range in coverage keep him from competing
with Willis, Timmons and Posluszny higher on the board.

32. Indianapolis (12-4)

Projected pick: Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue
Needs: OLB, DT, ILB, RB, G, CB, WR, OT, QB
The Colts have much bigger needs at linebacker and defensive tackle,
but Spencer is their kind of player. Undersized with very good speed
and up-the-field playmaking skills, Spencer could be a steal late in
the first round if he builds on the progress he made as a senior at
Purdue (nation-best 26.5 tackles for loss).

Round 2

33. Oakland -- Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn
34. Detroit -- Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
35. Tampa Bay -- +Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
36. Cleveland -- +Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
37. Chicago (from Washington via N.Y. Jets) -- Steve Smith, WR, USC
38. Arizona -- Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State
39. Atlanta (from Houston) -- Justin Blalock, G, Texas
40. Miami -- Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State
41. Minnesota -- +Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
42. San Francisco -- LaMarr Woodley, DE/OLB, Michigan
43. Buffalo -- +Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State
44. Atlanta -- Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
45. Carolina -- Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
46. Pittsburgh -- Arron Sears, G, Tennessee
47. Green Bay -- +Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State
48. Jacksonville -- Craig Davis, WR, LSU
49. Cincinnati -- Turk McBride, DT, Tennessee
50. Tennessee -- Ryan Kalil, C, USC
51. N.Y. Giants -- Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
52. St. Louis -- David Harris, ILB, Michigan
53. Dallas -- Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee
54. Kansas City -- Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland
55. Seattle -- Tank Tyler, DT, N.C. State
56. Denver -- +Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
57. Philadelphia -- Brian Leonard, FB/RB, Rutgers
58. New Orleans -- Tanard Jackson, CB, Syracuse
59. New York Jets -- Ikaika Alma-Francis, DE/OLB, Hawaii
60. Miami (from New England) -- Ray McDonald, DE, Florida
61. Baltimore -- Quentin Moses, DE/OLB, Georgia
62. San Diego -- Eric Weddle, S, Utah
63. N.Y. Jets (from Chicago) -- Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
64. Tampa Bay (from Indianapolis) -- Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal

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