[CBFF] Never too early for a mock draft

[Phil DeNomme]

McShay is smoking crack with the Bears pick

-----Original Message-----
From: cbff-bounces at chicagobearsfanforum.com
[mailto:cbff-bounces at chicagobearsfanforum.com] On Behalf Of Jerry Madsen
Sent: Thursday, December 06, 2007 1:53 PM
To: CBFF
Subject: [CBFF] Never too early for a mock draft

Underclassmen dominate first mock draft

By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
(Archive)
Insider

Updated: December 6, 2007, 1:54 PM ET

In the first of many mock drafts to come, a few things jumped out. The
first is that New England, which was forced to forfeit its 32nd pick,
made out just fine by having San Francisco's pick, which the Pats
received in a draft-day trade last April and right now is the second
overall. That means there will be high drama; Bill Belichick and Co.
will have to decide whether to take Darren McFadden or trade down as
the Patriots look to continue their run of great drafts.

Another thing is the abundance of underclassmen here (they're the ones
with the * next to their name). Just to be clear, we never promote
juniors leaving early, but it's a fact of life that they do. So
instead of ignoring it, we add those players who belong in the first
round. Obviously, there are lot of decisions to be made between now
and Jan. 15 -- the early entry deadline -- as the process goes on and
players officially declare their intentions, we'll adjust the mock
draft accordingly. But for now, 16 of the 31 picks are underclassmen.

A couple other notes:

LSU's Glenn Dorsey would become the first defensive tackle selected
No. 1 overall since Cincinnati took Dan Wilkinson first in 1994.

A case of mock draft vs. my personal rankings jumps out with Atlanta
taking Brian Brohm. I think Boston College's Matt Ryan is the best QB
prospect, but Atlanta would take Brohm based on his ties with his
former coach at Louisville Bobby Petrino.

Finally, while Atlanta and St. Louis and Oakland and Kansas City would
flip a coin to determine their slot based on being tied in record and
opponents winning percentage, the players they are projected to take
wouldn't change.

Remember, this is the first of many mock drafts and things will change
as we move closer to the 2008 draft, but if the draft were today,
here's how it would shake out.

NFL Mock Draft

1. Miami Dolphins
Current record: 0-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, OG, DT
Projected pick: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
One of the Dolphins' top priorities is to upgrade the talent level
along the offensive and defensive lines with an injection of youth.
Dorsey played most of the second half of the season with a minor knee
injury and a back injury and was still the most disruptive defensive
tackle in the country. He should be ready to contribute immediately in
the NFL.

2. New England Patriots (from 3-9 San Francisco)
Current record: 12-0
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: ILB, CB, OLB
Projected pick: Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas
This hardly seems fair. The league's best team lands the draft's top
talent -- or strikes another lucrative draft-day deal for him. Both
McFadden and Laurence Maroney split carries in college. A two-back
rotation would make both last longer, not to mention the possibilities
for an offense already overloaded with talent.

3. New York Jets
Current record: 3-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, NT, ILB
Projected pick: James Laurinaitis*, ILB, Ohio State

There simply is not a wide receiver to get excited about with the
third overall pick and USC DT Sedrick Ellis is not a good fit as a
two-gap NT in this scheme. McFadden should be the pick, if he falls to
the Jets, but in this scenario, Laurinaitis makes the most sense. He
would solidify the linebacker corps next to another young talent in
David Harris (2nd round pick in '07). Michigan OT Jake Long is a
possibility, as well.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Current record: 3-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, OL, DT
Projected pick: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
It almost makes too much sense. The Falcons, in desperate need of a
franchise quarterback in the wake of the Michael Vick mess, use their
first-round selection on a signal-caller who played for current
Atlanta head coach Bobby Petrino at Louisville from 2004-06.

5. St. Louis Rams
Current record: 3-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, CB, DE
Projected pick: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The season-ending injury to perennial Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace and
the Rams' overall poor play along the offensive line this season make
Long a real possibility with this pick. He is unquestionably the most
dominant offensive-line prospect in the 2008 class.

6. Cincinnati Bengals
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: DT, LB, OT
Projected pick: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
It would be tough to pass on DE Chris Long, but the Bengals have a
much bigger need for interior help. Ellis is a quick, tough and
relentless defensive tackle. He has the potential to disrupt plays in
the backfield while occupying blocks, which would make the Bengals'
entire front-seven better.

7. Oakland Raiders
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, WR, DL
Projected pick: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Outside of McFadden, there isn't a player I value more in the 2008
class than Chris Long. He plays the game with rare passion and nearly
flawless technique. In addition to controlling blockers as a 3-4 end
in college, Long also disengages from blocks and makes big play after
big play. The fact that he finished the regular season with 14 sacks
playing in that scheme tells you all you need to know about his talent
and motor. Raider Nation would certainly welcome another Long with
open arms.

8. Kansas City Chiefs
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, WR, CB
Projected pick: Ryan Clady*, OT, Boise State
Clady only makes sense here if Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle makes strides
during the final few weeks of the season. If not, QB Matt Ryan would
have to be a possibility with this pick. Clady is still improving his
strength but he possesses impressive feet to go along with his
enormous wingspan.

9. Baltimore Ravens
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, CB, LB
Projected pick: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Ryan is the top quarterback prospect in the 2008 class. In this
scenario, the Ravens would send a thank-you letter to the Falcons and
gladly take Ryan with the ninth overall selection.

10. New Orleans Saints
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: MLB, TE, DT
Projected pick: Keith Rivers, LB, USC
This is a bit high for Rivers, but the Saints need linebacker help and
could fall in love with his leadership and tempo. Rivers could
possibly play inside in the NFL, but his more natural fit is on the
weakside. Regardless, he is a first-round talent with very good
instincts, quickness and tackling skills.

11. Houston Texans
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: DB, OG, RB
Projected pick: Malcolm Jenkins*, DB, Ohio State
Jenkins spends most of his time in soft-zone coverage at both corner
and safety at Ohio State. It's unlikely he will ever emerge as a
shutdown man-to-man cover corner in the NFL, but Jenkins is a ball
hawk with excellent size and straight-line speed. His versatility
could help solidify the Texans' secondary.

12. Denver Broncos
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, DT, S
Projected pick: Kenny Phillips*, S, Miami (Fla.)
Phillips had a substandard season, and it would say a lot about his
character if he returns to Miami for his senior season and take on a
leadership role. On the flip side, Phillips is likely to be the top
safety selected if he bolts school early for the 2008 draft. Denver is
aging at the position, making it one of Phillips' potential
first-round landing spots. His speed and athleticism would be a good
complement to the Broncos' existing group of comparatively slow-footed
tough guys.

13. Carolina Panthers
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, WR, DE
Projected pick: Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Woodson has the size, arm strength and accuracy as a passer to develop
into a good starter in the NFL. Some teams will be concerned about his
occasional lapses in decision-making and lack of mobility. However, I
would consider the Panthers fortunate if Woodson drops to them at No.
13 overall. In this scenario, Woodson would be the third and final
quarterback off the board in the first round, leaving the Bears to
adjust their plans quickly.

14. Chicago Bears
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, OT, S

Projected pick: Mike Jenkins, DB, South Florida
If the team can't get one of the top three quarterbacks, it likely
will look for help along the offensive line and at safety. Jenkins
plays mostly corner at South Florida but he may be a better fit at
free safety in the NFL. Regardless, Jenkins has excellent speed and
ball skills for his size. He has shown much better discipline and
technique as a senior, which is why he is shooting up many NFL draft
boards.

15. Philadelphia Eagles
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, S, WR
Projected pick: DeSean Jackson*, WR, Cal
Sam Baker would be a possibility, but will the Eagles really take
another USC tackle considering Winston Justice's struggles thus far?
>From my vantage point, Jackson would be tough to pass on here if he
leaves following a disappointing junior season at Cal. Sure, critics
will attack Jackson for being lean and struggling to stay healthy. But
none of his injuries project to have long-term ramifications. Plus,
he's a better pure wide receiver than Ted Ginn Jr. (picked by Miami
No. 10 overall in 2007) and Jackson is just as explosive in the return
game.

16. Washington Redskins
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, DE, S
Projected pick: Derrick Harvey*, DE, Florida
Harvey could use another season in Gainesville to improve his bulk and
strength, but don't count on him returning. The 6-foot-4, 255-pound
junior notched 17.5 sacks the past two seasons and will wow scouts
with his speed and athleticism during workouts. Harvey could upgrade
the Redskins' perimeter pass rush immediately.

17. Arizona Cardinals
Current record: 6-6
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, DT, RB
Projected pick: Sam Baker, OT, USC
Baker has the feet and balance of a future Pro Bowl left tackle.
Unfortunately, he is neither aggressive nor strong enough to start in
the NFL right now. Depending on how many underclassmen come out,
Arizona could have more to choose from with this pick -- at both the
offensive and defensive tackle positions.

18. Buffalo Bills
Current record: 6-6
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: TE, CB, OLB
Projected pick: Ali Highsmith, LB, LSU
Paul Posluszny, Buffalo's second-round pick in 2007, showed lots of
promise prior to his season-ending injury. The Bills, however, could
still use help at the position even if Posluszny returns to form.
Cornerback and tight end are bigger needs, but Highsmith is rated
higher than the next-best prospect at either position. Highsmith
possesses the athleticism and speed to emerge as a playmaking starter
in the NFL, but only if his bulk and recognition skills improve.

19. Minnesota Vikings
Current record: 6-6
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: DE, S, C
Projected pick: Calais Campbell*, DE, Miami (Fla.)
Yes, it's true. The Vikings are really in the market for another
first-round defensive end. Campbell is first-round material despite
failing to live up to expectations in 2007. Sure, he could improve his
stock to the top-10 range by returning to school and maximizing his
talents as a senior. Though something tells me an athletic 6-7,
285-pound end with 4.7-speed and 17 sacks the past two seasons won't
slip far -- even if he's not fully developed.

20. Detroit Lions
Current record: 6-6
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, CB, TE
Projected pick: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
It looks like the Lions will be selecting outside of the top 10 for
the first time since 2001. Now the trick is to find quality players
this far down the line. Otah is a late-rising prospect from Nigeria
with quick feet for such a massive frame. Otah will take some time to
develop but he might be worth the wait.

21. Dallas Cowboys (from 7-5 Cleveland)
Current record: 11-1
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: S, OT, WR
Projected pick: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Sweed is the most naturally gifted receiver in the 2008 class if
healthy. Unfortunately, the homegrown product's senior season was cut
short by a wrist injury. Although durability is a concern, some team
could get a steal in the bottom-half of the first round if Sweed
returns to form as expected. Owner Jerry Jones has never been one to
shy away from risks.

22. Tennessee Titans
Current record: 7-5
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, DT, CB
Projected pick: Malcolm Kelly*, WR, Oklahoma
The Titans need to surround franchise quarterback Vince Young with
better perimeter weapons. Young may be forced to befriend a Sooner if
his former teammate, Sweed, is off the board. Kelly could use another
season of polishing but word out of Norman is the 6-4, 220-pound
glider will take his chances in the upcoming NFL draft.

23. San Diego Chargers
Current record: 7-5
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: ILB, DL, RB
Projected pick: Rey Maualuga*, ILB, USC
Maualuga is finishing strong as a junior. He publicly stated he plans
on returning to Southern California next fall, but Maualuga wouldn't
be the first to renege on such a promise. A strong showing at the
combine could catapult the 250-pound middle linebacker into the
top-half of the first round.

24. Seattle Seahawks
Current record: 8-4
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, S, TE
Projected pick: Jonathan Stewart*, RB, Oregon
The Seahawks have some tough questions to ponder at the running back
position in the upcoming offseason. Will Shaun Alexander return to
form? Can Maurice Morris be the full-time load-carrier if not? Stewart
has yet to indicate his intentions but it wouldn't be a bit surprising
if he followed QB Dennis Dixon out of Eugene. Stewart has the
versatility, power and burst to thrive in coach Mike Holmgren's
system.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current record: 8-4
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, CB, OLB
Projected pick: Aqib Talib*, DB, Kansas
Talib is a versatile athlete with the size, toughness and ball skills
to fit well in the Tampa 2. Who knows, maybe coach Jon Gruden would
get him some time at wide receiver like Mark Mangino did at Kansas.

26. New York Giants
Current record: 8-4
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OLB, OT, DB
Projected pick: Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Connor is a bit overrated, but the Giants would be getting a solid
value on him at No. 26 overall. Connor moved inside to middle
linebacker as a senior but it seems his better fit in the NFL will be
at the Will (weakside linebacker) position.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Current record: 8-4
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, OLB, S
Projected pick: Vernon Gholston*, DE/OLB, Ohio State
This would have to be worst-case scenario for Gholston, who has 21.5
sacks the past two seasons, including eight in his last four outings.
Gholston is a bit undersized but he is powerfully built with
above-average speed. The Jaguars would jump at the opportunity to
select the junior here, even if end is not a top priority.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Current record: 9-3
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, WR, S
Projected pick: Michael Oher*, OT, Mississippi
The Steelers should use this picks to upgrade their offensive line.
Oher is reportedly on the fence in regards to staying in school or
turning pro. Should he leave early, Oher has all the physical tools a
team looks for in a potential starting left tackle. He comes with some
baggage, though, and his technique still needs polishing.

29. Green Bay Packers
Current record: 10-2
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: RB, S, OL
Projected pick: Felix Jones*, RB, Arkansas
Ryan Grant has been a nice story this season but the Packers can't
count on him as its premier back moving forward. The verdict is still
out on rookie Brandon Jackson, who has failed to meet expectations so
far. A proven veteran would be ideal but Jones has proven capable of
contributing as a complementary weapon. He brings world-class speed to
the table as a runner, receiver and return specialist.

San Francisco 49ers (from 10-2 Indianapolis)
Current record: 3-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, OL, S
Projected pick: Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Obviously, the 49ers would like to have that No. 2 pick back from the
Patriots, but they'll have to make due with the 30th pick. Doucet has
been bothered by a nagging groin injury, which prevented him from
emerging as a reliable No. 1 weapon at LSU this fall. But a couple
fast 40 times and a big week at the Senior Bowl could help affirm his
big-play potential for NFL decision-makers.

31. Dallas Cowboys
Current record: 11-1
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: S, OT, WR
Projected pick: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
The Cowboys can use this pick to bolster their offensive line depth
after selecting a wide receiver (Sweed) earlier in the round. Cherilus
has struggled in his first year on the left side and in a new system.
A team patient enough to rebuild his confidence -- which probably
includes moving him back to ROT -- could reap the rewards.

New England Patriots
Current record: 12-0
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: ILB, CB, OLB
Projected pick: Pick forfeited.

Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts
Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.

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