[CBFF] ESPN - NFL's most underrated and overrated CBs

[Jerry Madsen]

 Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Updated: July 5, 7:14 AM ET
Hall, Barber didn't earn Pro Bowl trips
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

This is the next installment in a series of articles about overrated
and underrated players. The analysis is based primarily on the 2006
metrics, which can be found in "Scientific Football 2007." This week's
topic is overrated and underrated cornerbacks.

Underrated Cornerbacks

Charles Woodson
Normally, I would not include Woodson in the underrated category
because he is considered a very good cornerback. However, his 2006
metrics indicate he should have been a lock for the Pro Bowl.

Woodson had the sixth-lowest overall YPA in the league last year. He
also had the second-best YPA among cornerbacks with more than 60
passes thrown their way. Only Champ Bailey beat him out in that
category.

Woodson tied for the most stripped/dropped passes, and had the
eighth-most forced incompletions. His eight interceptions tied for
sixth in the league and his 16 combined interceptions/near
interceptions were the second most in the league. That Woodson was
snubbed in favor of DeAngelo Hall and Ronde Barber for the Pro Bowl is
a shame.

Nathan Vasher
The Bears recently signed Vasher to a contract extension, and the
metrics indicate he certainly deserved it. His 6.0 YPA last year was
the 12th best in the league. Vasher had good YPA numbers across the
board, but his bomb pass YPA numbers were tremendous. He allowed zero
completions in six bomb attempts and was even able to draw a 10-yard
offensive pass interference call on one of the plays, thus making his
YPA on bomb passes a superb -1.7 yards.

The main reason Vasher wasn't seen as a Pro Bowl-level cornerback is
that his interception total dropped from eight in 2005 to three in
2006. Vasher did notch seven near interceptions last year, a total
that ranked him second in the league in that category. If he can catch
some of those near interceptions in 2007, a trip to Hawaii should be
in his future.

Others
Johnathan Joseph: His 7.3 overall YPA was already very good, and if
his poor performance against the Saints was removed, his YPA would
drop to a mere 5.9 yards. He also helped the Bengals by leading the
league in near interceptions (12).
Leigh Bodden: Only appeared in nine games for Cleveland last season,
but had the third-best success percentage in the league, and led the
NFL in forced incompletion percentage.
Al Harris: Was not quite as good as Woodson, but still ranked 18th in
YPA and seventh in success percentage.
Charles Tillman: A 6.7 YPA, 52.1 success percentage and seven near
interceptions indicate the Bears should do what they can to keep him
around as well.

Overrated Cornerbacks

DeAngelo Hall
This is the second consecutive season Hall makes this list. He
receives this honor because he once again made the Pro Bowl, despite
posting simply abysmal metrics.

His 9.2 YPA ranked 76th among cornerbacks. Hall's 47.1 success
percentage was solid (31st in the league), but his 17.9 missed pass
percentage was one of the highest in the league. That means a large
percentage of Hall's success was due to luck.

His supporters would point out that many of the big plays he allowed
were due in part to not getting good help from the Falcons' safeties.
That might be the case, but Hall's overall YPA was still only .8 yards
better than Jason Webster's figure. Furthermore, Woodson had just as
little help from the Packers' mediocre safeties and still put up great
metrics.

Ronde Barber
Barber also didn't deserve a trip to the Pro Bowl. His 7.9 overall YPA
was tied for 58th in the league, and his 37.6 success percentage was
76th. To put these numbers in perspective, Barber's YPA was equal to
Terrence McGee's, and he ranked just below Carlos Rogers in success
percentage.

Barber did have one great game last year, notching two interception
returns for touchdowns in Tampa Bay's 23-21 win over Philadelphia in
Week 7, but he had only one interception the rest of the year. He also
only had three near interceptions. Barber is still a solid cornerback
but to say he was one of the best in the NFC last year is simply not
accurate.

Others
Will Allen: Allen is touted as the best cornerback on the Dolphins'
roster, but his 38.8 success percentage was the worst of any
qualifying cornerback on his team last year (30 pass attempts needed
to qualify).
Marcus Trufant: His 9.0 YPA and 36.4 success percentage in 2006 didn't
even measure up to his Seattle teammate Kelly Herndon, and Herndon was
released this offseason.
Rashean Mathis: A starter in Jacksonville, Mathis has a number of
really good metrics, but his 7.5 YPA is average and his 44.2 success
percentage is borderline mediocre. He also allowed 22.3 YPA on the 10
combined corner/go/double move go passes thrown at him, so he
definitely has a tendency to get beaten deep.
Terence Newman: He is considered much better than his Dallas teammate
Anthony Henry, but Newman's 2006 overall YPA was only .4 yards higher
than Henry's. He also ranked 57th in the missed pass percentage
category, so luck was on his side.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to
ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN
Fantasy Football Magazine, which hits newsstands on June 19. His
latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available at his Web
site.