[CBFF] ESPN - NFL's most underrated and overrated TEs

[Jerry Madsen]

 Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Updated: July 5, 7:16 AM ET
Shockey failing to make deep impact
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

This is the first of a series of articles covering the most overrated
and underrated players in the NFL. The criteria I used was contrasting
the player's 2006 metrics with his perceived performance level.

This week's list features overrated and underrated tight ends.

Overrated tight ends

Jeremy Shockey
Shockey was voted to the Pro Bowl last year, but the metrics indicate
he didn't deserve the selection. Shockey ranked 23rd in yards per
attempt among qualifying tight ends last year (5.6). He ranked last in
medium pass YPA and 18th in short pass YPA.

Shockey is perceived to be an excellent downfield threat when lining
up as a wide receiver, but that is also a mirage. He had a 4.7 YPA on
passes thrown to him when he was flexed out, a total that placed him
next to last in that category.

In a nutshell, Shockey's YPA figures place him more in the company of
Randal Williams and Alex Smith, not Jason Witten and Alge Crumpler
(the other two NFC Pro Bowl tight ends in 2006).

Randy McMichael
This is the second consecutive year I've identified McMichael as being
overrated. His move to St. Louis has revealed that some people still
believe he is one of the elite tight ends in the NFL. The metrics say
otherwise.

McMichael's overall YPA (6.9) was adequate, ranking him 13th among
tight ends last year. Unfortunately, he is a one-trick pony. Of the 92
passes thrown to him last season, 71 were short passes (1-10 yards).
The reason McMichael wasn't thrown more vertical passes is his YPA on
the 21 combined medium/deep/bomb passes last year was a meager 7.0
yards.

McMichael also had the lowest YPA and success percentage for a tight
end when flexed out. He should do a fine job in St. Louis as a
check-down target, but he is certainly no longer one of the best tight
ends in the NFL.

Others
Dallas Clark: He is often described as a wide receiver in a tight
end's body, but his YPA (6.3) indicates he is no wide receiver.
Kellen Winslow: He may have the skills to be a vertical receiver, but
was used mostly as a check-down target last year, as evidenced by his
92 short pass attempts.
Ben Watson: Had the fifth-lowest success percentage among tight ends in 2006.

Underrated tight ends

Chris Cooley
Cooley is already considered by many to be one of the top 10 tight
ends in the NFL, but the metrics indicate he deserves even more
praise.

Cooley posted the fourth-best overall YPA among tight ends. He had the
sixth-best medium pass YPA and the best short pass YPA. His YPA when
flexed out (10.8) was easily the highest in the NFL. That he was able
to put up these numbers, despite the struggles of the Redskins'
quarterbacks last year, speaks volumes about his ability.

Desmond Clark
Last year, Rex Grossman claimed Clark was his go-to receiver, and the
metrics show why. He ranked third in YPA, finishing ahead of players
such as Cooley and Jason Witten. Clark's numbers were not skewed by a
smaller number of attempts:

In addition to his impressive overall numbers, Clark also ranked
fourth in both medium and deep pass YPA. If he puts up similar numbers
in 2007, he should receive a lot of votes for the Pro Bowl.

Others
Owen Daniels: Ranked eighth in overall YPA (7.7 yards), despite
playing in the vertically challenged Houston offense.
Heath Miller: Miller had the seventh-best YPA (7.9), and the best
medium pass YPA (14.7) of any tight end last year.
Alex Smith: Smith's success percentage (75.5.) and medium pass YPA
(13.5) both ranked second in the league.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to
ESPN Insider. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is
available for a special preorder price at his Web site.