[CBFF] CBS Sportsline: Bears ending hibernation on third down?

[Steve Behrens]

(((Now *THIS* is exciting to read!!!)))


  Bears ending hibernation on third down?
  [image: Click here to find out
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      *By Pat Kirwan <http://www.nfl.com/writers/kirwan>
NFL.com Senior Analyst*

  <http://www.nfl.com/emailafriend/index?location=http://www.nfl.com%2Fnews%2Fstory%2F10211213&headline=Bears%20ending%20hibernation%20on%20third%20down%3F>

(June 3, 2007) -- The entire offseason talk surrounding the Chicago Bears
has been about Lance Briggs
<http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/395932>seeking a contract
extension. It's certainly a newsworthy story but probably
not deserving of the attention it has received nearly every day since the
Super Bowl. It would be great if he plays the 2007 season for the defending
NFC champs, but if he doesn't, there are other things to get interested in
discussing.

I prefer to take a look at another very important football issue that Bears
coach Lovie Smith and company have to improve in order to return to the
Super Bowl and maybe win the game: Chicago's third-down conversion
percentage has to get better and it may be headed in that direction. If
you're a Bears fan, it might be time to get excited about the potential the
Bears are developing on third down, and if your favorite team plays Chicago
this season, there may be something to be concerned about.

Smith and general manager Jerry Angelo made three important moves this
offseason to put a third-down offense on the field that should cause
conflicts for defenses and will improve a third-down success percentage that
over the past four years has been sub par to say the least. Here's a look at
the top three teams in the NFL in converting third downs in each of the past
four years with a minimum of 80 attempts and where the Bears stacked up.
It's amazing the Bears even got to the Super Bowl last year.
  *Year* *No. 1* *No. 2* *No. 3* *NFL average* *Bears*  2006 Colts
(56%) Cowboys
(48.8%) Saints (44.9%) 40% 36.8 % (22nd)  2005 Colts (48.7%) Falcons (42.9%)
Bengals (42.9%) 39% 28.8% (31st)  2004 Vikings (52.3%) Packers (47.3%) Chiefs
(47.2%) 36.9% 25.1% (32nd)  2003 Seahawks (46.8%) Vikings (46.6%) Saints (
46.3%) 36.6% 33.8% (24th)


It's clear from this chart that NFL offenses have consistently improved
converting third downs over the past four years but the Bears have fallen
short of the NFL average every year. And when it came to the playoffs, it's
even uglier. Teams in general are less successful converting third downs
during the playoffs. For example, last year the Colts dropped from a 56
percent success rate in the regular season to 47 percent in the playoffs,
converting 30 of 64 third downs. San Diego had a 43.2 percent success rate
on third downs all season but fell to 35.7 percent in the postseason. The
Ravens succeeded 41.2 percent of the time in the 16-game season but slipped
all the way down to 18.2 percent in the postseason. Overall, the NFL rate of
success on third downs drops about 5-6 percent from the regular season to
the postseason and the Bears hit it right on stride, dropping from a poor
36.8 percent during the season down to 30.4 percent on their playoff run.
That may be too much to overcome in the future as their defense loses
players like Briggs.

But Angelo and Smith recognize they must get better and all of a sudden the
Chicago third-down package may have the firepower to cause problems.

  [image: Defenses will have to keep an eye on Devin Hester as he moves to
offense.]   *Defenses will have to keep an eye on Devin Hester as he moves
to offense.*    First, the addition of Devin
Hester<http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/412717>to the offense is
going to provide two things they desperately need: 1. A
guy who can catch the quick screen on a high-percentage completion and run
for a first down. The "smoke screen" series that Steve
Smith<http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302129>runs for the
Panthers should become a very important part of the Bears'
third-down offense. 2. The threat of the reverse when Hester is in the slot,
just like the Saints have with Reggie Bush, will hold a pass rusher and
minimize underneath coverage on Bernard
Berrian<http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/492890>or Muhsin
Muhammad <http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1203>. For example, if
Hester comes from the side opposite Muhammad on the reverse fake, the
outside linebacker can't hold off the curl by Muhammad until he knows Hester
has the ball or not. By then, it's too late to cover the big wide receiver.
Of course, as soon as teams don't honor Hester and drop off quickly, look
for Rex Grossman <http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396159> to drop the
ball off to Hester.

Next, everyone knows the Bears' deep threat is Berrian, but now Chicago has
6-foot-4 rookie tight end Greg
Olsen<http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/olsen_greg>with his
4.5 40-yard dash speed to open up the middle of the field and prevent the
safety on Berrian's side from leaving the hash mark and supporting the deep
streak Berrian runs so well. Even Grossman will be able to take advantage of
the conflict Olsen and Berrian can create down the field.

The third dimension that could cause problems for opponents is running
back Garrett
Wolfe <http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/wolfe_garrett>, Chicago's
third-round pick in April's draft. Wolfe is only 5-foot-7 but his 52 college
touchdowns and over 5,000 rushing yards show he could be a very damaging
weapon on the draw play. It's going be hard to even see the "little big man"
as a fifth weapon on third downs to help move the chains. Wolfe once told me
he scored eight touchdowns in high school as a 4-10, 85-pound freshman and
he expects to play well in pro football.

I'm not sure how long it's going to take the Bears to fix their third down
issues, but I do believe they have enough weapons to cause problems and get
up over the league average in third down conversions. Maybe it's time to
stop talking about Briggs and focus on what the Bears are building. Now when
Smith says, "We got to win on third down," it should happen and that means
the playoffs are within reach.