[CBFF] [Fwd: Angelo's aim: Fabulous four]

[Tom Shannon]

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/football/bears/912778,CST-SPT-mully24.article


  Angelo's aim: Fabulous four


      He's managed 4 picks, 4 starters before, but now he needs offense

April 24, 2008

BY MIKE MULLIGAN <mailto:mmulligan at suntimes.com> mmulligan at suntimes.com

It might sound like an immodest goal, what Bears general manager Jerry 
Angelo is hoping to achieve early in this weekend's draft, but he has 
done it once before.

''We have four picks in the top 100, and we want to come out with 
potentially four starters, and if we can't, at least with three and then 
the fourth player having filled a need in some capacity on our team,'' 
Angelo said this week during an otherwise tight-lipped predraft pow-wow 
with the media.

In 2004, Angelo and his staff produced a starter with each of their 
first four picks: defensive tackles Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson, 
receiver Bernard Berrian and defensive back Nathan Vasher. Things have 
been rougher since then. Johnson had to be released after too many 
off-the-field issues. Berrian bolted town in the offseason for the 
riches of Minnesota.

The drafts that followed were uneven at best. Research by USA Today 
Sports Weekly finds the Bears had only three regular starters in 2007 
from their 22 picks in the last three drafts. That's well below the 
league average of 6.5 starters and ties Angelo with -- /gulp/ -- 
Detroit's Matt Millen for the second-worst performance in that time 
frame, behind only Carolina (one).

The Bears' three starters from the study were running back Cedric 
Benson, safety Danieal Manning and defensive end Mark Anderson. It's 
possible none of them will start in 2008.

In fairness, Devin Hester, the best pick of Angelo's Bears tenure -- if 
not his career as an evaluator -- didn't fit the magazine's criteria of 
a starter. The study punishes Angelo for the remarkable continuity of 
the starting lineup in the Lovie Smith era. And last year's first-round 
pick, tight end Greg Olsen, is definitely a keeper.

Still, it remains that the Bears have gaping holes in their lineup, and 
it's no longer good enough to take ''redshirt'' prospects such as Dusty 
Dvoracek (third round, 2006), Dan Bazuin (second, 2007) and Michael Okwo 
(third, 2007) or unproductive high picks such as Benson (first, 2005) 
and Mark Bradley (second, 2005).

The Bears are committed to devoting much of their draft to offense, 
where they have a significantly worse strike ratio. Angelo has had 
something of a magic touch on defense, selecting three Pro Bowl players 
-- Harris, Vasher and Lance Briggs -- and productive players such as 
Anderson, Alex Brown and Charles Tillman.

Offense has been another matter. The Bears opened last season with only 
three offensive starters drafted by Angelo: Berrian, Benson and Rex 
Grossman. The only productive one was Berrian. If Olsen doesn't improve 
the average, maybe Hester will, but remember, he started his career at 
cornerback, not wide receiver.

Angelo has made 57 picks in six drafts and has taken five more defensive 
players (including Hester) than offensive players. Of 19 picks in the 
first three rounds, only eight were used on offense.

If you compare the value of the picks using the chart developed by Jimmy 
Johnson in Dallas -- the chart still used to judge how trades stack up 
on draft day -- you will find the Bears have devoted more to offense in 
the Angelo era than you might imagine.

The chart assigns a value of 3,000 points to the top overall selection, 
2,600 to the second pick and declining value through the final round. 
The Bears have used an average of 5,113.4 points on offense, compared 
with 5,771.9 on defense. In other words, they have invested a lot of 
draft work on offense without getting the kind of production they've 
received on defense.

With 11 picks this weekend, they won't just be drafting offense -- 
they'll be redrafting for some of the positions they've missed before. 
Fans can only hope they have more up their sleeves than optimism this 
time around.