[CBFF] [Fwd: Bears' penchant for finding defensive players needs to spread to offense]

[Tom Shannon]

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Bears' penchant for finding defensive players needs to spread 
to offense
Date: 	Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:55:37 GMT
From: 	<Brad Biggs>



*Mike Mulligan*, an Inside the Bears confidant, takes a comprehensive 
look at the Bears’ draft results 
<http://www.suntimes.com/sports/football/bears/912778,CST-SPT-mully24.article> 
in the *Jerry Angelo* era in today’s edition, paying particular 
attention to what he turned up on offense.

While the organization has been successful identifying defensive 
players—*Lance Briggs*, *Tommie Harris* and *Nathan Vasher* have all 
been to Pro Bowls—the results on offense have been less inspiring. The 
Bears opened last season with just three Angelo draft picks starting on 
offense—quarterback *Rex Grossman*, running back *Cedric Benson* and 
wide receiver *Bernard Berrian*. Grossman will be locked in a training 
camp battle with another draft pick in *Kyle Orton* this summer. Berrian 
will start for Minnesota and Benson’s future is iffy.

Mulligan turned to the analysis created by Inside the Bears last October 
that evaluated how the club’s draft picks have been allocated. The 
primary question was has the team been better with defensive draft picks 
because it drafts more defense?

In part, yes. But the results might be closer than you think. In six 
drafts, Angelo has had 19 picks in the top three rounds. Eight have been 
used on offense—*Marc Colombo* and *Terrence Metcalf* (2002), Grossman 
(2003), Berrian (2004), Benson and *Mark Bradley* (2005), *Greg Olsen* 
and *Garrett Wolfe* (2007).

Using the draft value chart designed to evaluate trades involving draft 
picks, points were assigned to each draft pick Angelo has had. The chart 
was devised by Jimmy Johnson 
<http://www.coverbrowser.com/image/sports-illustrated/1792-1.jpg> when 
he rescued the Dallas Cowboys starting in the late 1980’s. I’m not sure 
how it worked when he dealt running back *Herschel Walker* to the 
Minnesota Vikings, but I think the Cowboys collected about 75,000 points 
in draft picks <http://min.scout.com/2/11653.html>, or something like that.

In the chart, the No. 1 pick is worth 3,000 points, the second pick 
2,600, all the way down to No. 224 which is worth one. Assigning one 
point to the picks that came below No. 224 as well—the draft is extended 
by supplemental choices each year—you can examine the point values in 
the Bears’ picks. It’s close. Over the last six years, 5,771.9 points in 
draft picks have been used on defense compared to 5,113.4 on offense. Of 
course, Benson as the fourth pick takes up the most space worth 1,800 
points, but it gives you a general idea of how things have stacked up.

USA Today Sports Weekly 
<http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/default.htm> notes that the 
Bears have produced only three starters in the last three drafts, tied 
with Detroit for the second-fewest in the league. There’s no guarantee 
those three will be starting in 2008. *Mark Anderson* could lose his job 
to *Alex Brown* at right end. Safety *Danieal Manning* looks like an odd 
man out in the secondary. Benson’s chances for starting will be somewhat 
determined by how high Angelo grabs a running back in this draft. Of 
course, *Dusty Dvoracek* is expected to slide in at defensive tackle and 
Bradley has a shot to start at wide receiver with *Kyle Orton* a 
possibility at quarterback.

Back to the Sports Weekly report ... only Carolina has been less 
productive than the Bears and Lions with just one starter from the last 
three drafts. No wonder *John Fox’s* job has been rumored to be in 
jeopardy for two years running.

Our friends over at *Pro Football Weekly* have an interesting study of 
the last five drafts. Publisher *Hub Arkush* notes that the Bears were 
one of four teams to produce three Pro Bowl players or more from 
2003-05. Eleven teams drafted 11 or more starters for 2007 between 
2003-07. Not surprisingly six were in the playoffs last season—San 
Diego, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England and Seattle. Three more 
playoff teams—Dallas, the New York Giants and Tennessee—had 10 starters 
drafted in that span. It’s a terrific report by Arkush and his staff and 
well worth a read 
<http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Draft+Extras/2008/recapintro.htm>.

The study also credits the Bears with 10 starters drafted from 2003-07 
<http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Draft+Extras/2008/recapspread.htm>. 
There were seven Angelo picks on the field for the opener at San Diego 
last season from that time frame—Anderson, Benson, Berrian, Briggs, 
Dvoracek, Grossman and cornerback *Charles Tillman*. Vasher didn’t get 
credited with a start because the defense opened in a three-safety 
package, but he’s a starter for this research. Other picks who made five 
starts or more during the season—Danieal Manning (15) and Trumaine 
McBride (9). That’s how PFW arrives at 10. The league average for the 
span of five drafts? 10.1.

Angelo’s best draft with the Bears was 2004 when his first four picks 
turned into starters—Harris, *Tank Johnson*, Berrian and Vasher. The 
team was good the year before in locating Tillman and Briggs along with 
a couple of wide receivers that have gone on to start elsewhere in 
*Justin Gage* and *Bobby Wade*.

It would be interesting to get Angelo’s take on the most productive 
draft he’s ever been involved with. He was the director of player 
personnel in Tampa Bay for 14 seasons, meaning he had heavy input in the 
Buccaneers’ drafts. Tampa hit in 1997 when it got running back *Warrick 
Dunn*, tackle* Jerry Wunsch*, guard *Frank Middleton*, cornerback *Ronde 
Barber*, linebacker *Al Singleton* and cornerback *Al Harris*. Nabbing 
*Warren Sapp* and *Derrick Brooks* two years earlier in the first round 
in 1995 was pretty good too. That laid the foundation for the Bucs’ 
Super Bowl champion.

Offense is the first order of business this weekend. They say you need 
to wait three seasons, at least, to evaluate a draft class. That’s true. 
The evaluating can wait but the Bears need results from some rookies 
this season.