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Unbearable market could doom Chicago

 By Charles Robinson, Yahoo! Sports Feb 28, 12:00 pm EST

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INDIANAPOLIS – Eyeing the free agent bloodbath on the horizon, Chicago
Bears general manager Jerry Angelo preached "sobriety in the
marketplace" – the act of keeping your head, spending money wisely,
and not corrupting prices in the NFL's free agent period.

"Because you have the money," Angelo said, "doesn't mean you have to
spend all the money."

In a way, it sounded like a verbal white flag from the team most
likely to get raided when free agency begins on Friday. Of all the
years to allow talented free agents to get to the open market, Chicago
gambled and stumbled upon the worst. A solid period of free agency has
been gutted by contract extensions and franchised stars such as Albert
Haynesworth, Jared Allen and Terrell Suggs. The result is a confluence
of cap space and second-tier stars who are poised to break the bank.



Salary cap sobriety? If anything, Angelo and the Bears are about to
get a first-hand lesson on the lack of it. Perhaps no team will suffer
more from this offseason's lack of free agent talent.

Chicago has three unrestricted free agents all sitting at or near the
top of their respective positions: outside linebacker Lance Briggs,
wideout Bernard Berrian and special teams ace/linebacker Brendon
Ayanbadejo. All three are Drew Rosenhaus clients, and all three are
expected to draw offers on the open market that will be too rich for
the historically budget-minded Bears to match.

"I would project that those guys would at least get to free agency or
at least the beginning of it," Rosenhaus said earlier this week. "But
the Bears are going to be in the mix as we continue to talk with other
teams. We're going to have a good, healthy dialogue with them."

Rosenhaus was dipping deep into his bag of diplomacy heading into the
free agent period, knowing he still has to negotiate a long-term
extension for Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris next season. But
other personnel executives expressed skepticism over whether the Bears
will ever get a sniff of Briggs or Berrian once the free agent period
begins.

"If they get to the market, they're not going back," said one NFC
general manager, who asked to remain anonymous because of the league's
rules on tampering. "(Briggs and Berrian) are one week guys. They'll
have a half dozen visits set up right out of the gate, and with the
little bit of talent that's out there, I'd bet they don't make it past
one or two of those trips before someone overpays to get them. Someone
will pay for (Ayanbadejo), too. A player who gives you depth at
linebacker and a good special teams player, those will draw a good
premium in this class."

Opinions varied on what Berrian and Briggs could draw in free agency,
but they have more than just the talent vacuum working for them. With
the ailing back of Brian Urlacher last season, Briggs was Chicago's
best defensive player. Meanwhile, Berrian still proved to be Chicago's
best and most consistent threat, despite being plagued with erratic
quarterback play all season. And both players have youth on their
side, with both turning 28 late next season.

Briggs should draw somewhere in the neighborhood of the $20 million in
guaranteed money given to Miami's Joey Porter and New England's
Adalius Thomas last season, despite Briggs being a pursuit 4-3 weak
side linebacker rather than a sack specialist in a 3-4 alignment. As
for Berrian, one AFC general manager said he believed the receiver
could land something approaching the six-year, $39 million pact given
to Deion Branch by the Seattle Seahawks in 2006. That deal included
about $13 million in guarantees. That's a remarkable sum for a player
who had his best season last year but still didn't manage 1,000
receiving yards, finishing with 951 and five touchdowns.

It already sounds like Angelo and the Bears have reached a maximum
contract figure in their heads with Briggs, Berrian and Ayanbadejo.
Whether the market exceeds that number will mean the difference
between keeping or losing them.

"You have to put values on players and then you have to stay
disciplined to that, or else what you are going to wind up doing is
you're going to keep all those players at an exorbitant amount of
money—way beyond how you valued the player," Angelo said.

And the open market value of their own players will likely be a rough
reality for a Bears team that is suddenly feeling a distinct talent
depression since falling in the Super Bowl a little over a year ago.
Besides the possibility of losing Briggs, Berrian and Ayanbadejo,
Chicago released Muhsin Muhammad and Fred Miller, on top of having
traded away workhorse running back Thomas Jones last offseason.

The Bears also gave a low tender to wideout Rashied Davis, who
appeared ready to emerge as a diamond in the rough after a solid 2006
season. Instead, Davis' production suffered along with the rest of the
Bears offense in 2007. Now he will likely draw interest from teams
needing a dependable slot receiver who can also return kicks –
potentially leaving Chicago with only Mark Bradley and Devin Hester in
a suddenly thin group of receivers.

The loss of talented young pieces, combined with the release of aging
veterans and a one-year contract for quarterback Rex Grossman has left
Chicago looking like a team in flux. But Bears coach Lovie Smith waved
off any notion the Bears are suddenly in transition.

"We're definitely not rebuilding," Smith said. "As far as Super Bowl
window, it was a long time ago it seems like we played in the Super
Bowl. But we like the core of our team still. I feel like we're close.
It's a fine line between winning and losing. This past season it went
the other way for us. The Super Bowl champion New York Giants had an
excellent year, we were right in it with them right up until the end.
So we feel like we are close."

How close Chicago remains will be hashed out in the next several
weeks. But whatever happens in that span – whether the Bears are
raided for key pieces or find a way to retain them – marketplace
sobriety is likely to have little to do with it.

Charles Robinson is a national NFL writer for Yahoo! Sports. Send
Charles a question or comment for potential use in a future column or
webcast.




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Updated Feb 28, 12:00 pm EST

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